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Sun, 06/08/14 - 8:10 PM Dr. Ed Meyer | NBA Total
double-dime bet 704 SAN / 703 MIA Under 198.5 Pinnacle
Results: W, $200
Analysis:

The big story in game one was the lack of air conditioning and Lebron’s cramping.  This, and the fact that the Spurs won going away, has overshadowed the Spurs' turnover problems.

San Antonio committed an uncharacteristic 22 turnovers in then opener, a mark they reached only three times previously this season.  It wasn’t the subs throwing the ball away either, four of the five Spurs’ starters committed at least four turnovers, with Duncan leading the way with five.  Popovich knows that they are going to get away with this sloppy play by shooting 58% from the field and 52% from the arc while recording 30 assists.  We expect a more deliberate, half-court game here.

San Antonio is 0-19 OU at home with rest after a five-plus point win in which they had at least 4.5 more turnovers than their season-to-date average and at least 50% of their baskets were assisted.  The SDQL text is:

team=Spurs and H and 0<rest and p:margin>=5 and p:TO - tA(p:TO) >= 4.5 and p:BAP>=50 and season>=2001

More specifically, San Antonio is 0-8 OU (-10.4 ppg) since the start of the 2011 season at home after a game in which Tim Duncan had at least 5 turnovers.  The SDQL text is simply:

H and Tim Duncan:p:TO>=5 and season>=2011

The Heat relied on the three-pointer quite a bit in the opener, taking 29 shots from long distance and making 12 of them.  They realize that they can’t get into a three-point shooting contest against the Spurs – especially in San Antonio.  Miami is 0-9 OU on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which they scored more than 29% of their points from the three-point line, staying under by a whopping 19.6 ppg.  The SDQL text here is:

team=Heat and A and 1<rest and p:PTP>=29 and season>=2008

Finally, we have a nice league-wide, playoff-only system that indicates a low-scoring game.  In the playoffs, NBA teams are 0-10 OU as a dog with two-plus days rest when they are off a loss by more than six points in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.

playoffs=1 and D and 1<rest and p:margin<-6 and p:BAP<45 and date>=20080501

These games have stayed under by an average of 10.4 ppg and this includes an overtime game that stayed under.  This one makes sense to us, as well-rested teams off a bad loss in which they did not “share the rock” should work the ball around for the best shot, thus using more of the 24-second clock. 

Take these two UNDER.

MTi’s FORECAST: SAN ANTONIO 95 Miami 93 



Pick Made: Jun 8 2014 2:56AM PST
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