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Goodfella | today's note
Free Pick: Colorado at Boston
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Sun, 06/08/14 - 8:10 PM Fezzik | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 703 MIA 4.5 (-110) William Hill vs 704 SAN
Results: W, $200
Analysis: 703 Mia Heat 2 stars. Props, 1 star BOSH UNDER 15.5 points, 1 star (this one is all over the map, UN 16.5-130, UN 15.5-110, UN 14.5+110, I like the UN 16.5-130 the best). Shop around! Bosh Under Like we said in the Indiana series, Chris Bosh tends to disappear as a scorer on the road. He's averaging just 13.1 points per game on the road this post-season. He did score 18 in Game 1 but with LeBron back at full strength, his touches may be limited as I expect LeBron to really try and take over the game coming off a loss. Also, Bosh was not much of a scorer in last year's finals against San Antonio averaging just 11.9 in the 7 game series. He scored more than 16 points just once in that entire series. Then you throw in he's averaging just over 15 points in all games this season on the road and I think we have a great value bet here. Look for him to regress a bit from what he did in game 1 and stay under the posted total. San Antonio, like Indiana, has size and length that should give him trouble like they did to Dirk and Kevin Durant. Everything points to Bosh scoring under the 16 points. Note, I also bet tiny on 1h UNDER 99.5 and game UNDER 199, but those are just leans no official plays. Note at +4.5 Heat are a solid 2* play. At +4, I would dial them down to 1.3 units or so. Although I expect SA to win the Series, everything points to Mia today. Mia has been solid off a playoff loss, covering around 70%, however the real gem is when they lose by more than double digits, in that role I believe they are 10-0 ATS. The Heat played great in game 1, were up 8 in the SA Sauna then we all saw what happened to the heat in the Heat. The Media is calling out James as being soft, expect an angry young man to show all who the best player in the NBA is today. In 2013 the Heat dropped game 1 at home, then thumped these guys game 2 in Miami by almost 20. A small sprinkle bet on the ML likely not a bad idea as part of your bet here as well.......

Pick Made: Jun 7 2014 4:05PM PST
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