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Sun, 06/08/14 - 8:10 PM King Creole | NBA Total
double-dime bet 704 SAN / 703 MIA Over 198.5 William Hill
Results: L, -$220
Analysis:
#703 / Sunday, 8:00pm ET - 5:00pm PT / Game Two / NBA Finals
MIAMI HEAT @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

Our Game One play on the UNDER was looking pretty decent after three quarters. And then the floodgates opened. The host Spurs went an unbelievable 14 for 16 in field goal attempts in that final quarter. They couldn't miss! They ended up shooting a whopping 59% from the field in the game. And the OVER ended up cashing by +6.5 points.

After numerous queries from our Playbook database, we'll be going HIGH in Sunday's Game Two. We can't ignore the high-scoring results in Playoff games for both of these teams as of late. The SPURS have gone 17-6 O/U at home in the Playoffs in the last 3 seasons. That includes 12-1 O/U when the OU Line was 202 or less points. In addition, SAN ANTONIO has gone a perfect 9-0 O/U off a SU Playoff win when the OU line is < 208 points. Also 7-1 O/U since 2006 in the Playoffs after scoring 110 > points when the OU line is 205 < points.

Meanwhile, the Heat is on a high-scoring run of their own. MIAMI has gone 16-5 O/U in the Playoffs in the last 12 months (6-1 O/U when the OU Line is 188 or more points. Also, the HEAT have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in their Playoff history after allowing 110 or more points in their last game. Also 6-0 O/U off a DOUBLE-DIGIT Playoff loss when the OU line is > 184 points.

The '4.2' game of the NBA Playoffs (Round 4 / Game 2) has gone 5-1 O/U when the OU line is 193 or more points...

We spent some time in the database for numerous GAME TWO Over / Under patterns. And they all point to a high-scoring outcome based on Game One's results.

13-1 O/U since 2005: All NBA Playoff GAME TWO home favorites of 7 < pts (SPURS) after scoring 110 > points in Game One.

19-5 O/U since 2007: All NBA Playoff road underdogs of 7 < Pts (HEAT) of a DOUBLE-DIGIT Game One loss.

Both teams come in on a 2-game 'Over' streak in their last two Playoff games...
8-0 O/U since 1993: All NBA Playoff GAME TWOS when BOTH teams (HEAT vs SPURS) are off BB Playoff 'Overs'... when the OU line falls in the range of > 192 points and < 215 points.

San Antonio's great offense has scored 110 pts... 112 pts... and 117 pts in their last three Playoff games.
6-0 O/U since 2002: All NBA Playoff teams who scored 110 or more points in EACH of their last three Playoff games (SPURS) when the OU line is less than (<) 210 points.

I also ran a query that pertains to NBA Playoff games in which the OU line is in the range of 195 to 200 points.
7-0 O/U: All NBA Playoff games in the range of 195-200 points (HEAT @ SPURS) off a Playoff 'OVER' in which the OU line was ALSO in the range of 195-200 points.

There's been a great HIGH-scoring pattern in NBA games this season when a .650 or better teams plays another .650 or better team. In fact, the gaudy 'OVER' results reminds me of the great NFL pattern that we played on numerous times last season in non-conference games (AFC vs NFC).
9-1 O/U since December: All .650 > teams (SPURS) versus a .650 > opponent (HEAT) when the OU line is in the range of 190 to 201 points.

Here's a variation of the same pattern involving great NBA teams:
10-2 O/U this season: All .650 > Western Conference teams (SPURS) versus a .650 > Eastern Conference opponent (HEAT)... when the OU line is 206 or less points.

Pick Made: Jun 7 2014 9:58AM PST
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