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Sat, 06/07/14 - 10:10 PM Marco D'Angelo | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 914 ARI (-108) William Hill vs 913 ATL
Results: W, $200
Analysis: PLAY:  ARIZONA

Arizona returned home from a road trip last night and lost the opening game of this series as happens so often in that first game back at home. Now coming off that loss Arizona becomes a high percentage play in the second game back at home. Atlanta sends Ervin Santana to the mound and he has been getting rocked as his ERA is 7.50 and his WHIP is 1.66 in his last 3 starts. Wade Miley goes for Arizona and he has been dealing it the last 2 starts as he has 20 strike outs in his last 13 innings of work.





California Chrome has a shot a racing immortality today and although on paper he looks like he shouldn't lose there are a few horses that have a chance to pull the upset. I will give my preview the top horses for you and give you how I am betting the race. Just as we did in the Preakness I will be betting the race so that if California Chrome does win the race we should get our investment back or turn a small profit. But if California Chrome does get beat as I feel is going to happen we will be looking at a big score.





Because there is no real speed in this years Belmont California Chrome will be right near or on the lead in this race. The only other horse that really possesses early speed is Samraat who I see as the pacesetter. Just off of those 2 horses you will find Tonalist and General A Rod. One of the biggest myths of the Belmont is that stone cold closers do well because of the 1 ½ mile distance but this is a myth as generally the fractions are too slow in the early stages of the Belmont that horses sitting at the very back of the pack can't make up the ground. However closers or what we refer to as mid pack stalkers do quite well as they are far enough off the pace in case it's too fast and yet close enough to the pace if it's slow and that where I feel the biggest threat to California Chrome will come from.


#9 Wicked Strong - This would have been my Top Choice in the Kentucky Derby had he not drew post position #20. Having to leave from the far outside in a 19 horse field following the scratch gave Wicked Strong no shot at the win. Then experiencing trouble at 2 different parts of the race finished him off in the Derby. But even with all of that said this horse still managed to get 4th in the Kentucky Derby. He comes into this race rested and training well. Note since 2000 there have been 7 horses who raced in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness only to come back and win the Belmont. Wicked Strong is one of those horses that will be stalking the pace mid pack looking to pounce in that very long Belmont stretch. This is our Top Choice to Upset California Chrome.


#1 Medal Count - In the Kentucky Derby this was our Top Choice and he went off at 26-1 and was making a big move half way down the stretch before Danza moved right in front of him causing our jockey Robbie Albarado to grab him up stopping all of his momentum. Trainer Dale Romans said we weren't going to win that day but would have been no worse than 3rd. I believe he would have been 2nd which would have been a big payday for us with place and show bets and exactas. He fits the bill of a Derby horse that is fresh from having skipped the Preakness and is our 2nd Choice.

#2 California Chrome - I expect California Chrome to be on the lead or just off of it with Samraat. One of California Chrome's best assets is his handiness as will go on if you ask him or he will sit and relax in a hole. I expect slow fractions that will keep both horses around till the top of the stretch. Samraat is a game horse that won't give it up easily I feel may battle California Chrome hard enough to let either Wicked Strong or Medal Count run him down in deep stretch. I am betting to get him beat but as a horse owner if he gets to the finish line first I will be in a sports book on Saturday standing up and clapping for this horse with a tear in my eye for what he has accomplished.


#11 Tonalist - This horse was an very impressive winner over this track in his last start in the Peter Pan Stakes. He won going away over a sloppy racetrack. His Trainer Christrophe Clement is a master at preparing horses for distance races and he has one of if not the best jockey on board in Joel Rosario. We really don't know how good this horse is as he has only 4 lifetime races. What we do know is his Beyer speed figures have gotten better in all 4 of his starts. This is a very live horse that will be used on exotics.


#5 Ride on Curlin - Was second best in the Preakness to California Chrome and we liked him a lot in the Preakness mainly because Joel Rosario replaced fired Calvin Borel who was fired after his horrible ride in the Kentucky Derby. This horse has talent but loses Joel Rosario who will be on Tonalist. I don't think can win but Ride on Curlin can be in the Tri and Super's.


#7 Samraat - This is the only true speed horse in the race so I expect slow fractions which can make a speed horse still be there in the stretch. He just got beat for 4th in the Kentucky Derby which gives him a license to be on the ticket again but only 2 horses have gone wire to wire in the Belmont since 1984 so I really don't give him a shot to win but he can fill out the bottom of Tri's and Super's.



Betting Strategies


We will make several bets with California Chrome but we will also make wagers that give us a chance should he get beat. If California Chrome doesn't finish 1st or 2nd we are looking at BIG Payouts. As always play within your Bankroll. I have given you Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Wagers. You can play all 3 of the Exotics or just what you are comfortable with. If you don't play everything at least make sure what ever you choose to play make sure you play a complete set. Example if you only want to Bet Trifecta's that's fine but play everything in the Trifecta section.






Win-Place-Show Betting

#9 Wicked Strong Win-Place- Show we will also make a Win-Place-Show wager on #1 Medal Count for ½ of what we wager on Wicked Strong. (Example: If you bet $10 across on Wicked Strong then bet $5 across on Medal Count). We are betting both of these horses because they both will be at inflated odds because California Chrome will be over bet.


Exacta's - Total Investments $172


  $5 Exacta Box  1-2-9-11 =  $60

$10 Exacta  2 with 1-9-11 = $30

  $6 Exacta 1-9-11 with 2   = $18

$10 Exacta Box 2-9 = $20

  $5  Exacta Box 1-2 = $10

  $5  Exacta Box 1-9 = $10

  $2  Exacta 1-9 with 4-5-7-8 = $16

  $1  Exacta 4-5-7-8 with 1-9 = $8


Trifecta's - Total Investments $138


$1 Trifecta Wheel 1-2-9-11 with 1-2-9-11 with 1-2-4-5-7-8-9-11 = $72


$1 Trifecta Wheel 2 with 1-9-11 with 1-4-5-7-8-9-11 = $18


$3 Trifecta Wheel 2 with 1-9-11 with 1-9-11 = $18


$2 Trifecta Wheel 1-9-11 with 2 with 1-9-11 = $12


$1 Trifecta Wheel 9 with 1-2-11 with 1-2-4-5-7-8-11 = $18


Superfecta's - Total Investments $135


$1 Superfecta Wheel 1-2-11 with 1-2-9-11-with 1-2-5-9-11 with 1-2-4-5-7-8-9-11 = $135



As always, Thank You for your loyal support and Best of Luck to us today….








Pick Made: Jun 7 2014 8:49AM PST
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