Mobile version of this content for your phone at PregameMobile.com (click now to access)

Pick Archive

The Pros
(expert handicappers)
Dollar-A-Day | see more
5-Pros: 5 Premium Picks DailyLess than $1 a Day! $1 Week Trial! $29.00 $1.00 Add to Cart
Fezzik | today's note
BEST BET OVERNIGHTS2* CFL, 2* WNBA $25.00 (for Thursday) Add to Cart
Scott Spreitzer | today's note
3* CFL THURSDAY NIGHT KNOCKOUT!4-0 w/ KO's This Season! $25.00 (for Thursday) Add to Cart
Bulk Dollars | see more
$300 gets you $500 40% Bonus on Your Money! $500.00 $300.00 Add to Cart
Goodfella | today's note
MLB 2nd Half All-AccessGuaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
Bryan Leonard | see more
Bryan's 7 Day All Access PackageSaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $149.00 Add to Cart
Stephen Nover | today's note
MLB 2nd Half All-AccessGuaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
JR ODonnell | today's note
Free Pick: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
MLB 2nd Half All-AccessGuaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
Dave Essler | today's note
MLB 2nd Half All-Access Guaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
Dr. Ed Meyer | see more
Dr. Ed's 7 Day All Access PackageSaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 Add to Cart
Greg Shaker | today's note
EARLY WEDNESDAY MLB TOTAL DESTROYERBIG PLAY ALERT EARLY + DISCOUNTED $19.00 (for Wednesday) Add to Cart
Andr√© Gomes | today's note
MLB 2nd Half All-AccessGuaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
Spartan | today's note
MLB 2nd Half All-AccessGuaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
Tony George | today's note
MLB 2nd Half All-AccessGuaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
Brady Kannon | see more
MLB 2nd Half All-AccessGuaranteed Lowest Price! $799.00 $349.00 Add to Cart
See all the Pregame Pros
Pregame.com is the lowest priced top-quality pick site on the net! (less than so-called "gua­rant­eed picks")
Pregame Rewards
Rewards Dollars:
10% of purchases
Rewards Points:
20% of purchases
Find out more
Discounts Available
0
See all discounts
Shopping Cart
SubTotal: 0 Items $0.00
Discount: $0.00
Pregame Dollars: $0.00
Promotion Code: $0.00
Total: $0.00
Checkout
Pregame Deals
Tweets from Pros
Pregame is the most quoted sports betting site in the world! (See latest)
Sat, 06/07/14 - 10:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 914 ARI (-103) 5Dimes vs 913 ATL
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
914 Atlanta at Arizona

Ervin Santana will take the ball for the Braves in the middle game of their weekend set against the Diamondbacks. The Snakes will counter with Wade Miley. There are a lot of concerns about Santana entering this start. If you look at his PITCHf/x data, there are some signs of potential injury for Santana.

Santana sailed through his first six starts with a 1.99 ERA and a 43/10 K/BB ratio. In his last four starts, Santana has allowed 20 runs in 23 innings with a 15/10 K/BB ratio. He has decreased the use of his slider of late, which signals a potential injury because the slider is Santana's bread and butter pitch and sliders put the most torque on a pitcher's elbow. Consider that teams were scared away from Santana's medicals before the Braves signed him out of necessity due to elbow injuries to Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen.

Usually Santana is the type of pitcher we would look to back because his advanced metrics signal improvement. However, we're concerned about his health because of what we're seeing from his control and the decreased use of the slider. In his first start of the season, 25 percent of Santana's pitches were sliders. Over the next five starts, he threw no fewer than 33.7 percent sliders. In his last four starts, his slider percentage per game has been 32.3, 23.2, 27.4, 29.9. After throwing 50 percent or more pitches in the strike zone in his first four starts, Santana has ranged from 35.7 to 48.5, with two games below 40 percent in those last four games.

The problem for Santana is that his fastball command has been lacking this season, so he either throws the slider and takes a chance with the elbow or he avoids the slider and has to rely on his other pitches. Factor in that Santana has had home run problems in the past and opposing hitters are slugging .431 on the road against Santana and it's hard to find reasons to like him in this start.

Wade Miley has deserved a better fate this season. His ERA is at 4.85 and his FIP is at 4.56, but his xFIP is 3.55 and his SIERA is 3.65. Home runs have been the problem and especially at home. That said, a 25.6 percent HR/FB rate is completely unsustainable. Miley has a 3.82 K/BB ratio at home. Miley is pitching from ahead in the count more and inducing more swings and misses and strikeouts overall. All of the positive developments have been overshadowed by the inordinate rate of home runs allowed. That number will come down and Miley's success rate will go up.

PLAY: ARIZONA


Pick Made: Jun 7 2014 6:26AM PST
> See Bryan Leonard's Premium Picks
Start with Trust!
Privacy: 100% - No Spam Ever!   Security: Yes - SSL encrypted!   Satisfaction: Guaranteed!
Pregame.com is located and licensed in Las Vegas, Nevada.