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Fri, 06/06/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 966 BAL (-105) Pinnacle vs 965 OAK
Results: L, -$210
Analysis: 966 Oakland at Baltimore

After failing to sweep the New York Yankees, the Oakland A's will take a trip down the East Coast to Baltimore to battle the Orioles. A couple of southpaws will square off in the series opener as Tommy Milone will take on Wei-Yin Chen. Milone could be in line for a rocky outing in this one. In his three years with the Oakland A's, Milone has a career 2.84 ERA at home and a 4.87 ERA on the road. Milone is a fly ball pitcher whose skill set is definitely more beneficial at home. With the exception of this season so far, Camden Yards has been in the top 10 in home run park factor every year since 2010.

Wei-Yin Chen is a pitcher that should be in line for some improvement in his traditional numbers. The Orioles are 7-4 in Chen's 11 starts and he has a 4.26 ERA to go along with a 3.57 FIP, a 3.47 xFIP, and a 3.72 SIERA. Chen has had a lot of bad luck on batted balls this season with a .333 BABIP against. He has made some interesting changes to his repertoire, especially increasing the use of two-seamers and breaking balls. Those changes have led to a lower walk rate and more ground balls.

Chen is the kind of pitcher that will force the A's to put the ball in play and that's not the style of game that they want to play. In games where the A's have drawn four or fewer walks, they are 18-17. That makes them 19-6 when they draw five or more walks. Chen has walked just 11 batters in 63.1 innings of work. His BB% ranks 10th among qualified starting pitchers with guys like Price, Tanaka, Lee, and Colon ahead of him.

The Orioles have the league's best wRC+ away from home at 114 and that's a rather surprising development given their success offensively at home over the last few years. Their road success should begin to translate at home and a matchup with a guy that struggles on the road could be the elixir that they need.


Pick Made: Jun 6 2014 4:44AM PST
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