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Thu, 06/05/14 - 8:40 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 908 COL (-133) 5Dimes vs 907 ARI
Results: L, -$266
Analysis:
908 Arizona at Colorado

It's a steep price to pay to go against Bronson Arroyo at Coors Field, but it's hard not to find a reason to love the Rockies on Wednesday night. Juan Nicasio will go for the Rockies. Arroyo, one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball, got a cortisone shot in his pitching elbow this past week, so it's clear that he's not very healthy. His fastball velocity has dropped yet again, this time by almost 2 mph, and the percentage of pitches in the strike zone according to PITCHf/x has dropped by 10 percent from last season.

Age may be catching up with the 37-year-old. According to Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs, Arroyo currently rates a 154 on the PAIN scale, where anything above 100 suggests that a pitcher is hurt. In six career starts at Coors Field, Arroyo has a 7.62 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Hitters have a .344/.377/.615 slash line against him in Denver. Arroyo has a razor-thin margin for error at this stage of his career and limiting the use of his slider, which he did in his two starts prior to the cortisone shot, and trying to command his pitches in a tough environment for pitch-to-contact guys makes this outing a troublesome one for Arroyo.

Juan Nicasio exited April with a 5.27 ERA and had it down to 3.61 before his last start bumped him up over 4.00. It's interesting to note that Nicasio's ground ball rate at home is nearly eight percent higher than on the road. It's clear that he makes adjustments to pitch at Coors Field and they've worked for him so far with a 3.60 ERA at home compared to a 4.67 ERA on the road. Arroyo doesn't have that luxury for pitching at Coors Field.

PLAY: COLORADO



Pick Made: Jun 5 2014 5:32AM PST
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