Results: L, -$266Analysis:
Arizona at Colorado
It's a steep
price to pay to go against Bronson Arroyo at Coors Field, but it's
hard not to find a reason to love the Rockies on Wednesday night.
Juan Nicasio will go for the Rockies. Arroyo, one of the most
extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball, got a cortisone shot in his
pitching elbow this past week, so it's clear that he's not very
healthy. His fastball velocity has dropped yet again, this time by
almost 2 mph, and the percentage of pitches in the strike zone
according to PITCHf/x has dropped by 10 percent from last
Age may be
catching up with the 37-year-old. According to Jeff Zimmerman of
Fangraphs, Arroyo currently rates a 154 on the PAIN scale, where
anything above 100 suggests that a pitcher is hurt. In six career
starts at Coors Field, Arroyo has a 7.62 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.
Hitters have a .344/.377/.615 slash line against him in Denver.
Arroyo has a razor-thin margin for error at this stage of his
career and limiting the use of his slider, which he did in his two
starts prior to the cortisone shot, and trying to command his
pitches in a tough environment for pitch-to-contact guys makes this
outing a troublesome one for Arroyo.
exited April with a 5.27 ERA and had it down to 3.61 before his
last start bumped him up over 4.00. It's interesting to note that
Nicasio's ground ball rate at home is nearly eight percent higher
than on the road. It's clear that he makes adjustments to pitch at
Coors Field and they've worked for him so far with a 3.60 ERA at
home compared to a 4.67 ERA on the road. Arroyo doesn't have that
luxury for pitching at Coors Field.
Pick Made: Jun 5 2014 5:32AM PST