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Wed, 06/04/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
double-dime bet 956 CIN / 955 SFG Over 8 5Dimes
Results: L, -$220
Analysis:
955 San Francisco at Cincinnati

Ryan Vogelsong and Tony Cingrani will square off on Wednesday night in Cincinnati as the Giants and Reds play the middle game of their three-game set. This appears to be a tough matchup for both pitchers. The fly ball pitcher Vogelsong has a 5.40 ERA in 25 road innings this season and has allowed all six of his home runs away from the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park. Hitters are enjoying a .300/.393/.567 slash line when Vogelsong pitches on the road.

On the surface, it would seem that Vogelsong figured things out in May, but his two road starts were in Atlanta and Dodger Stadium, two good parks for pitchers, and three of his other four starts were at home. If the Reds are able to get runners on, Vogelsong has really struggled with his control from the stretch. With the bases empty, Vogelsong's K% - BB% is 16.9 percent, with a K% of 21 percent and a BB% of just 4.1 percent. With men on base, however, his K% - BB% falls to 3.5 percent with a K% of 17.4 percent but a walk rate of nearly 14 percent. It's even worse with men in scoring position. Pitching on the road may be a mental hurdle for Vogelsong that he has not come to terms with, thus he will continue to struggle. He had a 6.42 road ERA last season and his ERA was a full run higher on the road than at home in 2012.

Tony Cingrani has not been sharp since returning from the disabled list on May 18. In 17 innings he has allowed 21 hits and 11 runs. He has just a 14/8 K/BB ratio and has allowed five home runs. Cingrani has allowed righties to post a slash line of .261/.348/.460 this season and that's an extension of last season's difficulties in limiting extra-base hits from righties, as they hit 13 of the 14 home runs that Cingrani allowed. 

It will be a balmy, humid night on the Ohio River and Great American Ball Park definitely plays smaller with warm, humid conditions. With a couple of pitchers prone to giving up fly balls and home runs, the total of 8 certainly seems like a gift here, especially with the safety net of a push.

PLAY: SF/CIN OVER


Pick Made: Jun 4 2014 5:17AM PST
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