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Tue, 06/03/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 904 CIN (-107) Pinnacle vs 903 SFG
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
904 San Francisco at Cincinnati

Tim Lincecum and Homer Bailey will square off to open up a midweek series between the Giants and Reds. There are a lot of reasons to be concerned about Lincecum entering this start. To date, he has posted the highest HR/FB% of his career at 14 percent and it's at 14.3 percent on the road. Away from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, Lincecum has a 4.91 ERA and a .451 SLG against. His wOBA against is .356, which would rank around 45th among 171 qualified players. In other words, Lincecum has really struggled on the road.

Only Edwin Jackson allows a higher percentage of line drives than Lincecum. He still gets some swings and misses, but his walk rate has once again climbed and his control and command are clearly deteriorating. Most of Lincecum's plate discipline statistics are trending in the wrong direction. With a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ball Park, Lincecum's home run tendencies are going to be an issue.

We've been keeping an eye on Homer Bailey as somebody whose stuff is much better than his performance and he's starting to come around. Bailey has thrown back-to-back quality starts with ground ball rates of 60 percent or higher and some of his highest swing-and-miss percentages to date.

Some of his stats are due for regression. Bailey has a 17 percent HR/FB rate, which is nearly six percent above his career rate. That will go down. His batted ball data is all going in the right direction with more ground balls and fewer line drives. His 2013 velocity increase has remained consistent and BABIP is nearly 40 points above his career average. His 5.04 ERA is accompanied by a 4.37 FIP and a 3.50 xFIP. As the home run rate goes down, his true performance will be closer to that 3.50 xFIP and that will win a lot of ballgames. His xFIP is 39th out of 101 qualified pitchers. Improvement is on the way and it looks like it may have already begun given his last two starts.

PLAY: CINCINNATI



Pick Made: Jun 3 2014 5:56AM PST
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