Results: W, $200Analysis:
San Francisco at Cincinnati
and Homer Bailey will square off to open up a midweek series
between the Giants and Reds. There are a lot of reasons to be
concerned about Lincecum entering this start. To date, he has
posted the highest HR/FB% of his career at 14 percent and it's at
14.3 percent on the road. Away from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park,
Lincecum has a 4.91 ERA and a .451 SLG against. His wOBA against is
.356, which would rank around 45th among 171 qualified players. In
other words, Lincecum has really struggled on the road.
Jackson allows a higher percentage of line drives than Lincecum. He
still gets some swings and misses, but his walk rate has once again
climbed and his control and command are clearly deteriorating. Most
of Lincecum's plate discipline statistics are trending in the wrong
direction. With a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ball
Park, Lincecum's home run tendencies are going to be an
keeping an eye on Homer Bailey as somebody whose stuff is much
better than his performance and he's starting to come around.
Bailey has thrown back-to-back quality starts with ground ball
rates of 60 percent or higher and some of his highest
swing-and-miss percentages to date.
Some of his
stats are due for regression. Bailey has a 17 percent HR/FB rate,
which is nearly six percent above his career rate. That will go
down. His batted ball data is all going in the right direction with
more ground balls and fewer line drives. His 2013 velocity increase
has remained consistent and BABIP is nearly 40 points above his
career average. His 5.04 ERA is accompanied by a 4.37 FIP and a
3.50 xFIP. As the home run rate goes down, his true performance
will be closer to that 3.50 xFIP and that will win a lot of
ballgames. His xFIP is 39th out of 101 qualified pitchers.
Improvement is on the way and it looks like it may have already
begun given his last two starts.
Pick Made: Jun 3 2014 5:56AM PST