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Sun, 06/01/14 - 4:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 910 ARI (-123) Pinnacle vs 909 CIN
Results: L, -$246
Analysis: 910 Cincinnati at Arizona

A start after struggling against the Dodgers, Alfredo Simon's regression train makes a stop in Phoenix as the Reds wrap up a weekend set against the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks will send Wade Miley to the hill against Simon. Simon has a 2.90 ERA but a 4.78 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, and a 4.36 SIERA. He has stranded nearly 86 percent of opposing baserunners with a well below average strikeout rate and an average defense.

The Diamondbacks came around offensively in the month of May, ranking 13th in wOBA and sixth among National League teams. Their awful start to the season has made for a tough hole to climb out of, but the Diamondbacks have mostly been a .500 team since ending May at 9-22 and they're still being priced like they're playing poorly. With an advantage in the pitching matchup, this is a good value on them.

Wade Miley has run into some bad luck this season. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career, but his HR/FB rate has gone up and has affected his ERA. Miley has a 4.76 ERA, which is skewing the oddsmakers' perception of him. His FIP is 4.22 and his xFIP is 3.65. With a SIERA of 3.78, Miley is pitching about a full run better than his ERA would indicate. He made big strides from April to May in terms of limiting extra base hits, so we're confident that his command has improved and with it, his stat line will improve as well.

The Reds were 29th in wOBA last month and they don't walk, which makes both getting baserunners and scoring runs far more difficult than it is for most teams. The Reds entered play on Saturday 29th in batting average and 30th in on-base percentage against lefties. They are 28 percent below league average against lefties this season.

The Diamondbacks have an enormous advantage in this matchup and this line should be higher than it is.


Pick Made: Jun 1 2014 4:27AM PST
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