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Fri, 05/30/14 - 8:15 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
triple-dime bet 908 STL / 907 SFG Under 6.5 Westgate
Results: L, -$300
Analysis:
908 San Francisco at St. Louis

Two of the best that the National League has to offer will take the hill on Friday night when Madison Bumgarner and the Giants take on Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals. The Cardinals have been awful against southpaws for the last two seasons and there aren't many as good as Bumgarner. The Cardinals rank 23rd in OPS against lefties at .670 and just recently moved up the ladder because some batted ball luck evened out. That seems to be a pretty true position for the Cardinals given what they've done to date.

Bumgarner is getting better with age. His chase rate is at an all-time high, his zone-contact percentage is at an all-time low, his swinging strike rate is at an all-time high, and his K% is also a career best. The Giants are slightly above average defensively as a team, but Bumgarner has not enjoyed their best efforts with a .346 BABIP against. That number will come down and so will his ERA. His 3.15 ERA is accompanied by a 2.95 SIERA, a 2.82 FIP, and a 2.99 xFIP, so this is a pretty sustainable level of pitching for Bumgarner and he could improve slightly.

There may not be a pitcher with command better than that of Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has a 77/16 K/BB ratio and has allowed just three home runs in 81 innings. His home K/BB ratio is 28/3 and he has held opposing batters to a .211 wOBA. He is truly an elite pitcher with a tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio and workhorse tendencies to throw 220+ innings with ease. This season, Wainwright is on pace to set a personal best in K/9 as a starter.

The Giants are 26th in K/BB ratio against right-handed starters and Wainwright will probably send the Giants lower in that category. The Cardinals also lead all of baseball with 38 defensive runs saved, so there should be a very limited number of hits in Friday's game. With a low number of walks, that should lead to very few baserunners.

These are two of the game's best and their talents will fully be on display on Friday night.

PLAY: SF/STL UNDER


Pick Made: May 30 2014 4:42AM PST
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