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Thu, 05/29/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 969 ATL (+102) Pinnacle vs 970 BOS
Results: L, -$200
Analysis: 969 Atlanta at Boston

Mike Minor will take the ball for the Braves as they wrap up their interleague series with the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox will counter with Jake Peavy. Minor is due for some progression in his numbers as his HR/FB rate is nearly eight percent above his career average. Minor has a 3.90 ERA and an ugly 4.75 FIP, but that's due to the high home run rate that should come down. Minor's xFIP is 3.56 and his SIERA is 3.71. Those are better indicators of how he is pitching than ERA and FIP and those are both lower than his traditional stats.

The Red Sox are right at league average against southpaws, so they shouldn't have an advantage against Minor in this one. In fact, one of the angles that we like to look at is a left-handed starter facing a team for the first time. Only three current Red Sox have faced Minor, so it should take some time for them to adjust to him.

There are plenty of concerns with Jake Peavy this season. For starters, Peavy has seen a drop in fastball velocity to below 90 mph on average, the first time in his long career that this has happened. The drop in velocity has coincided with a drop in strikeouts and an increase in walks. Peavy has allowed the highest contact percentage of his career and his first-pitch strike percentage is at a five-year low.

An examination of Peavy in early May by Paul Swydan of Fangraphs showed that Peavy is afraid to challenge hitters this season and when he has challenged them, he has allowed nine home runs in 60 innings of work. The decline in Peavy's stuff and control coincides with his expected aging curve and a lot of years as a workhorse and recent years of injuries have clearly taken their toll on him.


Pick Made: May 29 2014 4:34AM PST
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