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Wed, 05/28/14 - 8:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 928 MIL (-128) Pinnacle vs 927 BAL
Results: W, $200
Analysis: 928 Baltimore at Milwaukee

A couple of righties will face off on Wednesday night in Miller Park when Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers host Bud Norris and the Orioles. Gallardo's ground ball ways have hurt his advanced metrics, but he has a 3.51 ERA over 10 starts. He's learning to become a different pitcher due to a loss in velocity and the early returns are that it should be a sustainable development. Gallardo has induced more weak contact with an increase in both ground balls and pop ups because of changes to his repertoire. In a place like Miller Park, weak contact can really benefit a pitcher and that's what Gallardo has seen so far with a 2.90 home ERA.

The one thing that Bud Norris had going for him was that he struck out opposing hitters. With that ability now gone, Norris is a mediocre pitcher posting the worst SIERA of his career. Despite an increased number of ground balls, Norris has allowed seven home runs in just 56.1 innings. When he misses, he misses on the fat part of the plate and hitters will make him pay in Miller Park. Norris has fallen from an above average strikeout guy to a below average strikeout guy and that's not a good development for a pitcher that had iffy control and a knack for giving up home runs. With less margin for error, Norris is a ticking time bomb that bettors should avoid.

There's very little to like about the pitcher that Norris has become while Gallardo has seen some positive returns from his changes and the Brewers should take full advantage on Wednesday.


Pick Made: May 28 2014 4:23AM PST
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