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Tue, 05/27/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 952 WAS (-115) Bookmaker.com vs 951 Mia
Analysis:
952 Miami at Washington

Henderson Alvarez and Blake Treinen should induce a lot of ground balls on Tuesday night in Washington, but Alvarez has run into a lot of trouble on the road and the Nationals are in a prime position to take advantage. Away from the friendly confines of Marlins Park this season, Alvarez has a .339/.395/.479 split against on the road and a .378 wOBA against. Alvarez also had worse road splits on the road last season as well.

The Marlins have been the subject of a sign-stealing accusation at home, where they have a 122 wRC+ and an .810 OPS. On the road, those numbers drop to an 86 wRC+ and a .671 OPS. Their road strikeout rate is 26 percent compared to 19.6 percent at home.

Those stats should work to the advantage of Blake Treinen, who has shown some strikeout ability. Most importantly, Treinen keeps the ball down with a ground ball rate of 55 percent in his career and no home runs allowed in 17.1 innings of work. Treinen will be looking for his first Major League win and he gets a great opportunity to achieve that milestone in this start against the Marlins. His control and command are what got him to this point and a free-swinging Marlins lineup plays into that very nicely.

PLAY: WASHINGTON


Pick Made: May 27 2014 4:45AM PST
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