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Tue, 05/27/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 963 TAM (+107) Pinnacle vs 964 TOR
Results: L, -$200
Analysis: 963 Tampa Bay at Toronto

Alex Cobb will make his second start after returning from the DL against regression candidate Mark Buehrle. Cobb is a tremendous pitcher that has had trouble staying healthy and fully meeting his potential over the course of an entire season. Against the Jays, Cobb has a favorable matchup. Entering play on Monday, righties had accounted for 120 of the 174 extra-base hits by Blue Jays hitters. Out of 613 righties faced, Cobb has allowed just 30 extra-base hits. That has led to a SLG against of just .311.

Out of 181 pitchers with at least 140 innings against just right-handed hitters since 2011, Cobb's .273 wOBA against is tied for the 14th-best. For his career, over 75 percent of plate appearances have ended in either a strikeout or a ground ball. Keeping the ball down is another way to neutralize a Blue Jays lineup that lives off of extra-base hits. Cobb does that and this should be a great matchup for him.

Mark Buehrle is undoubtedly due regression. His SIERA of 4.30 is right in line with his career 4.39 SIERA, yet he has a 2.16 ERA. He is having the best year of his career in terms of limiting home runs and that number is so low that it's completely unsustainable. Without the ability to strike out hitters, baserunners will start coming around to score off of Buehrle. His LOB% is 81.1 percent. He's always been above average for a low-strikeout pitcher, but never higher than 75.7 percent.

Buehrle has that 2.16 ERA but a 3.14 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP. His career HR/FB% is 9.8 percent and this season it's just three percent. That's a lot of batted ball luck and for a guy that pitches to contact and throws a lot of strikes, the only way that number will go is up.

The recent play of the Jays has given us plenty of value on the Rays in this spot, especially with Cobb's skill set matching up well against the Jays lineup.


Pick Made: May 27 2014 4:42AM PST
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