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Sun, 05/25/14 - 5:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
double-dime bet 962 ATL / 961 COL Over 7.5 Pinnacle
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
961 Colorado at Atlanta

Franklin Morales and Julio Teheran will face off on Sunday evening when the Rockies and Braves wrap up their weekend set. Morales draws a tough assignment against the Braves, who have the highest wRC+ and are tied with the Rockies for the top OPS against left-handed pitching. Braves right-handed bats have a wRC+ of 143 against southpaws on the season, which is tops in the league. Morales has a history of struggling with righties. Righties are slugging .503 off of Morales this season to improve on the career slugging percentage of .446.

Julio Teheran is due for some regression and it should come very soon. Following a shutout in his last start, Teheran lowered his ERA to 1.92, but a 3.85 FIP, a 3.96 xFIP, and a 3.87 SIERA suggest a correction in Teheran's ERA very soon. He's striking out fewer batters than last season and living on the batted ball luck of a .193 batting average against and a .214 BABIP against. His career averages in those two categories are .231 and .268, respectively. So he has performed better than average, but to be this much better than average is not likely to be sustainable. Along with a drop in strikeouts, Teheran is stranding 86.5 percent of baserunners. Unless the strikeouts come back, expect a normalization in that number.

Even though it's a getaway day for the Rockies, expect some runs to be scored in this game with a bad matchup for Morales and regression for Teheran.

PLAY: COL/ATL OVER


Pick Made: May 25 2014 4:37AM PST
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