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Sun, 05/25/14 - 1:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 953 ARI (-109) Pinnacle vs 954 NYM
Results: W, $200
Analysis: 953 Arizona at NY Mets Game 1

The Diamondbacks and Mets were rained out on Saturday and with the logistics of travel to make up a game, the teams will play a doubleheader on Sunday. In the first game, the Diamondbacks will send Bronson Arroyo to the hill against Rafael Montero. Arroyo had sailed along through four consecutive quality starts before running into a bump against the St. Louis Cardinals.

We like Arroyo against this Mets lineup on Sunday in the first game. Arroyo's problem has and will always be the long ball because he throws so many strikes. Citi Field ranks 29th in run scoring and 24th in home runs per ESPN's Park Factor statistics. Arroyo has opted for more sinkers and changeups this season to push his ground ball rate above 50 percent. Also, his 34 percent chase rate is the 12th-highest in MLB among qualified starters. Arroyo is the same guy that he has been for quite some time now and Citi Field should be advantageous for him.

Rafael Montero has managed just five innings per start in his two outings this season and a lack of control could be a big problem for the Mets in a doubleheader. With Daisuke Matsuzaka starting in the nightcap, Montero is likely to give the Mets 100 pitches regardless of how much he's struggling. In his two Major League starts, Montero has allowed 18 baserunners in 10.1 innings of work and has allowed three home runs. He's largely a three-pitcher pitcher, so the Diamondbacks shouldn't have too much trouble getting a read on him early in the game.

Montero has struggled to get swings and misses at the Major League level and the Diamondbacks have a pretty decent offense, despite the team's awful start to the season. With the Mets forced into a tough situation with the doubleheader and the Diamondbacks knowing what kind of start they will get from Arroyo, this is a good spot to back Arizona.

PLAY: ARIZONA GAME 1



Pick Made: May 25 2014 4:33AM PST
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