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Sat, 05/24/14 - 10:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 913 CHC (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 914 SDP
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
 927 Houston at Seattle

Dallas Keuchel is legit. The Houston left-hander made a repertoire change to throw more two-seamers and sliders and the results have been very impressive so far. His ERA of 2.92 is supported by a 2.80 FIP, a 2.66 xFIP, and a 2.47 SIERA. Keuchel has a 4.58 K/BB ratio on the season and draws a favorable matchup in this outing against the Mariners. The Mariners rank 27th in OPS against lefties. They also have the worst walk rate against them at 5.6 percent. Their .356 SLG against southpaws is the fifth-worst in baseball.

Brandon Maurer will be working on nine days rest as the Mariners attempt to get him fixed. There's no fixing Maurer. In 114 Major League innings, Maurer has allowed 145 hits. He has a 6.24 ERA and a 4.75 FIP. He also has a 4.96 SIERA. The Astros may not have a great lineup, but Maurer has been battered by almost everybody in his Major League career. The Astros scored four runs off of him in six innings in early May and there's no reason to believe that Maurer's awful command has been fixed by some extra rest.

The sportsbooks seem leery of making Houston a road favorite but they have an enormous advantage in the pitching matchup and Keuchel's improvements are for real.

PLAY: HOUSTON


Pick Made: May 24 2014 4:32AM PST
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