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Fri, 05/23/14 - 8:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
double-dime bet 974 CWS / 973 NYY Under 9 Westgate
Results: L, -$250
Analysis:
974 NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox

The Yankees and White Sox will continue their four-game weekend set with a matchup between right-handers as Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound against Hector Noesi. Kuroda has pitched better than last year by SIERA, but some bad luck with fly balls and the Yankee Stadium park factor have hurt his season. Kuroda still possesses elite command with a walk rate below four percent and a strikeout rate of 18,7 percent, which is right around league average.

Kuroda's ERA is 4.61, but his FIP is 3.94 and his xFIP is 3.46. His HR/FB% is three percent above his career average and he's stranding just 61.6 percent of his baserunners. Kuroda's problems have largely been at home, where he has a 5.60 ERA and 4.56 FIP in 35.1 innings. On the road, Kuroda has posted a 2.79 ERA and a 2.81 FIP over 17.1 innings. Kuroda's advanced metrics show some improvement and his style of pitching is a good matchup against a very aggressive White Sox lineup.

Hector Noesi has had mixed results as a starter, but he's taking on a Yankees lineup that has performed five percent below average on the road this season. Even though Noesi's line drive rate is only a little above league average, his BABIP against is .376, which should come down. Noesi has a chase rate above 30 percent and a swinging strike rate above 11 percent. Noesi's SIERA is 3.99, so his numbers should be around league average, but the BABIP is skewing them a bit.

Given the advanced metrics of both guys, a total of nine seems a bit high for this game. The White Sox have fallen off offensively since their hot start to the season as they rank 19th in wOBA in the month of May and lead the league in strikeout rate at over 24 percent.

PLAY: NYY/CWS UNDER


Pick Made: May 23 2014 5:30AM PST
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