Mobile version of this content for your phone at (click now to access)

Pick Archive

The Pros
(expert handicappers)
Goodfella | today's note
MLB (3*) TRIPLE DIME DOMINATOR GOW162-89 (65%) DOMINATOR WIN STREAK $27.00 $1.00 Add to Cart
Greg Shaker | today's note
sleepyj | today's note
Free Pick: Washington at Atlanta
Thurs CFB 3*** "BOMB"Tonight We KO The Man !! $5.00 Add to Cart
Stephen Nover | today's note
Free Pick: Northwestern at Michigan
NHL GAME OF THE WEEKPerfect in NHL; Top play $25.00 Add to Cart
Spartan | today's note
Free Pick: Navy at Notre Dame
TRIPLE STAR DIAMOND WINNER!Plus 30 Units Baseball Triples! $28.00 Add to Cart
Fezzik | today's note
NFL 3* UNDERDOG Strongest NFL BET OF THE WEEK $25.00 (for Sunday) Add to Cart
Pauly Howard | today's note
Thursday Crusher NFL Play15-2 trend in our direction $15.00 Add to Cart
Dave Essler | today's note
* SEC 3* Game of the Month - More *+24.75u CFB - 65% GOW Winners $25.00 (for Saturday) Add to Cart
JR ODonnell | today's note
Free Pick: Indianapolis at Houston
3* CFB POWER PLAY!!7-3 CFB 3* Run! $25.00 Add to Cart
Bulk Dollars | see more
$99 Gets You $150!OVER 50% Bonus! Spend How You Want! $150.00 $99.00 Add to Cart
Dave Cokin | today's note
Free Pick: Winnipeg at Boston
3* CFB GAME OF WEEK!Fire with Maximum Confidence $25.00 (for Friday) Add to Cart
Ken Thomson | see more
Ken's 7 Day All Access Package $119.00 Add to Cart
Steve Merril | today's note
2* MLB PLAYOFFS GRAND SLAMPerfect 2-0 Playoffs $25.00 Add to Cart
Coach Fletcher | today's note
Free Pick: Ottawa at Buffalo
CFB / NFL Both Game 2* TotalsCoach is coming on big in footbal $20.00 Add to Cart
Brady Kannon | see more
Brady Kannon's 7 Day All Access $119.00 Add to Cart
See all the Pregame Pros is the lowest priced top-quality pick site on the net! (less than so-called "gua­rant­eed picks")
Pregame Rewards
Rewards Dollars:
10% of purchases
Rewards Points:
20% of purchases
Find out more
Discounts Available
See all discounts
Shopping Cart
SubTotal: 0 Items $0.00
Discount: $0.00
Pregame Dollars: $0.00
Promotion Code: $0.00
Total: $0.00
Pregame Deals
Tweets from Pros
Premium & Free!
Pregame is the most quoted sports betting site in the world! (See latest)
Fri, 05/23/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 955 MIL (-110) Westgate vs 956 Mia
Results: W, $300
Analysis: 955 Milwaukee at Miami

The Milwaukee Brewers will make the short trek to Miami from Atlanta to open up a weekend set against the Miami Marlins. Marco Estrada will take the mound for the Brewers. The Marlins will counter with Tom Koehler. Estrada has pitched well this season with a 3.64 ERA in nine starts. Normally we avoid guys with high FIPs because regression appears possible, but Estrada's xFIP is 3.88, which means that his home run rate is abnormally high. Marlins Park ranks 25th in HR Park Factor, so we're not too concerned with Estrada here.

Estrada is posting a 3.13 K/BB ratio and the Marlins have struck out in 22.5 percent of their plate appearances through Wednesday's action. The Marlins have limited exposure against Estrada with just 36 plate appearances and more than half of those belong to one hitter.

The big reason we like this play is because Tom Koehler is in line for serious regression. Koehler has posted a 2.25 ERA but has a 4.12 FIP, a 4.53 xFIP, and a 4.65 SIERA. Koehler has been ridiculously lucky with a BABIP against of just .213 and an 85.9 percent LOB%. That's way beyond unsustainable for a pitcher with a well below average strikeout rate. Koehler's SIERA is actually higher than what he posted last season when he had a 4.41 ERA, a 4.27 FIP, and a 4.28 xFIP. In other words, Koehler isn't pitching any better than last season, he's just getting luckier.

The Brewers have an advantage in the bullpen given the performance of each team this season. With Estrada's biggest flaw neutralized by the park factor and the regression in Koehler's advanced metrics, the Brewers look like a strong play on Friday night.


Pick Made: May 23 2014 5:17AM PST
> See Bryan Leonard's Premium Picks
Start with Trust!
Privacy: 100% - No Spam Ever!   Security: Yes - SSL encrypted!   Satisfaction: Guaranteed! is located and licensed in Las Vegas, Nevada.