Results: W, $300Analysis: 955 Milwaukee at
Brewers will make the short trek to Miami from Atlanta to open up a
weekend set against the Miami Marlins. Marco Estrada will take the
mound for the Brewers. The Marlins will counter with Tom Koehler.
Estrada has pitched well this season with a 3.64 ERA in nine
starts. Normally we avoid guys with high FIPs because regression
appears possible, but Estrada's xFIP is 3.88, which means that his
home run rate is abnormally high. Marlins Park ranks 25th in HR
Park Factor, so we're not too concerned with Estrada here.
posting a 3.13 K/BB ratio and the Marlins have struck out in 22.5
percent of their plate appearances through Wednesday's action. The
Marlins have limited exposure against Estrada with just 36 plate
appearances and more than half of those belong to one hitter.
reason we like this play is because Tom Koehler is in line for
serious regression. Koehler has posted a 2.25 ERA but has a 4.12
FIP, a 4.53 xFIP, and a 4.65 SIERA. Koehler has been ridiculously
lucky with a BABIP against of just .213 and an 85.9 percent LOB%.
That's way beyond unsustainable for a pitcher with a well below
average strikeout rate. Koehler's SIERA is actually higher than
what he posted last season when he had a 4.41 ERA, a 4.27 FIP, and
a 4.28 xFIP. In other words, Koehler isn't pitching any better than
last season, he's just getting luckier.
have an advantage in the bullpen given the performance of each team
this season. With Estrada's biggest flaw neutralized by the park
factor and the regression in Koehler's advanced metrics, the
Brewers look like a strong play on Friday night.
Pick Made: May 23 2014 5:17AM PST