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Goodfella | today's note
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Fri, 05/23/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 955 MIL (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 956 Mia
Results: W, $300
Analysis: 955 Milwaukee at Miami

The Milwaukee Brewers will make the short trek to Miami from Atlanta to open up a weekend set against the Miami Marlins. Marco Estrada will take the mound for the Brewers. The Marlins will counter with Tom Koehler. Estrada has pitched well this season with a 3.64 ERA in nine starts. Normally we avoid guys with high FIPs because regression appears possible, but Estrada's xFIP is 3.88, which means that his home run rate is abnormally high. Marlins Park ranks 25th in HR Park Factor, so we're not too concerned with Estrada here.

Estrada is posting a 3.13 K/BB ratio and the Marlins have struck out in 22.5 percent of their plate appearances through Wednesday's action. The Marlins have limited exposure against Estrada with just 36 plate appearances and more than half of those belong to one hitter.

The big reason we like this play is because Tom Koehler is in line for serious regression. Koehler has posted a 2.25 ERA but has a 4.12 FIP, a 4.53 xFIP, and a 4.65 SIERA. Koehler has been ridiculously lucky with a BABIP against of just .213 and an 85.9 percent LOB%. That's way beyond unsustainable for a pitcher with a well below average strikeout rate. Koehler's SIERA is actually higher than what he posted last season when he had a 4.41 ERA, a 4.27 FIP, and a 4.28 xFIP. In other words, Koehler isn't pitching any better than last season, he's just getting luckier.

The Brewers have an advantage in the bullpen given the performance of each team this season. With Estrada's biggest flaw neutralized by the park factor and the regression in Koehler's advanced metrics, the Brewers look like a strong play on Friday night.

PLAY: MILWAUKEE


Pick Made: May 23 2014 5:17AM PST
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