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Thu, 05/22/14 - 3:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 904 COL (-116) Pinnacle vs 903 SFG
Results: T,
Analysis: 904 San Francisco at Colorado

A brief three-game road trip will wrap up for the Giants when Tim Hudson takes the mound against Jorge de la Rosa and the Rockies. It could be a rocky start for Hudson, who has given up 29 runs in 34 career innings at Coors Field. The sinkerball pitcher has had trouble commanding his bread and butter pitch with 18 extra-base hits allowed in those 34 innings. Back in April 2013, Baseball Prospectus took a look at Mike Hampton and the effects that Coors Field and the thin air had on his sinker. Hampton went so far as to scrap the pitch, telling the media that he stopped throwing it because it had been ineffective. Through the 2012 season, the league batting average on sinkers had been .296. At Coors Field, it was .340. At Coors Field, pitcher ISO, which is isolated power, saw a .043 point jump at Coors Field on sinkers compared to the league average.

It's clear that the conditions negatively affect sinkers and that's going to be a problem for Hudson against a very good Rockies lineup. He's due for some regression anyway with a 2.09 ERA but a 2.99 FIP and a 3.04 xFIP. Seven of Hudson's eight starts have come in pitcher's parks and Coors Field is anything but.

Jorge de la Rosa has seen an increase in ground ball rate this season and he is also striking out more hitters. His HR/FB rate should drop down towards his career rate. De la Rosa seems healthier now than in past seasons since his fastball velocity has climbed back towards his pre-injury values.

With Hudson expected to run into trouble against a high quality lineup in a ballpark that spells trouble for him, the Rockies should give de la Rosa plenty of support for this outing.


Pick Made: May 22 2014 4:46AM PST
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