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Wed, 05/21/14 - 9:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 979 MIN (+135) Pinnacle vs 980 SDP
Results: W, $270
Analysis: 979 Minnesota at San Diego

There's some line value available on the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night as they continue their interleague series against the San Diego Padres. Phil Hughes will take on Tyson Ross in this matchup. The light has come on for Hughes as he has not walked a batter over his last four starts covering 26.1 innings of work. The fly ball pitcher will be going to a park that is extremely conducive to his style of pitching, so we expect that Hughes should put together a very solid outing.

The Padres entered play on Tuesday batting just .222 as a team. With Hughes allowing a batted ball distance of 257.1 feet, Petco Park's marine air is going to help generate a lot of weak outs. In his last four starts, Hughes has mowed through Detroit twice, Baltimore, and Boston. The Padres are a much easier challenge for the right-hander.

Tyson Ross is due for some regression based on his last few outings. In three May starts, Ross has posted a .187 batting average against and a .231 BABIP. Those aren't sustainable numbers for a guy with a ground ball rate as extreme as Ross's. Not only that, but Ross has been able to work around 9.6 percent walk rate this season, which is nearly more than two percent above the National League average.

The Twins are one of the most patient lineups in the league with a walk rate of 10.6 percent, which ranks second in all of baseball. Ross has a 2.81 ERA but a 3.84 FIP and a 3.48 SIERA. He's outpitching his abilities by a little bit and any control problems should be exacerbated against a Twins lineup that walks a lot. If nothing else, it should limit Ross's ability to work deep into the game.

There's a lot of value on the Twins with this line and what Hughes is doing should continue for at least one more start given the park factor in San Diego.


Pick Made: May 21 2014 5:00AM PST
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