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Mon, 05/19/14 - 10:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB RunLine
double-dime bet 959 HOU 1.5 (-115) Pinnacle vs 960 ANA
Results: W, $200
Analysis: 959 Houston at LA Angels

Dallas Keuchel's success appears to be sustainable and he'll take the ball on Monday night for the Astros against Garrett Richards and the Angels. Keuchel made two changes to his repertoire so far this season with increased use of a two-seamer and increased use of a slider. The results has been a spike in strikeouts and a spike in walks and those two things have Keuchel with a 3.06 ERA. His 3.02 FIP and 2.68 SIERA suggest that Keuchel's performance has a strong possibility of continuing. He has also limited his walks by eliminating his curveball. Only 13 pitchers have induced more swings and misses on sliders than Keuchel.

Keuchel has a 3.06 GB/FB ratio, which was second only to Justin Masterson through Saturday's action. His 13.7 percent line drive rate ranks third among qualified pitchers. Both of those are telling indicators of Keuchel's command so far this season. Keuchel will keep his team in what should be a low scoring game.

Only four pitchers have a lower BABIP with a higher GB rate than Garrett Richards. This would suggest that some of the batted ball luck that Richards has gotten will start to turn around and lead to more hits. Richards has the 26th-highest line drive rate among qualified pitchers and the second-lowest BABIP among the pitchers with the 30 highest line drive rates. Only Adam Wainwright has a lower BABIP.

This should be a fairly low scoring game, but there is some regression to the mean coming in Richards's BABIP against at some point and we'll look for it to come here in a game where the Astros are a very attractive play on the run line given Keuchel's performance to date.


Pick Made: May 19 2014 6:25AM PST
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