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Sun, 05/18/14 - 3:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
triple-dime bet 924 TEX / 923 TOR Over 9.5 Pinnacle
Results: L, -$300
Analysis:
923 Toronto at Texas

Runs are in the forecast on Sunday afternoon in Texas when R.A. Dickey faces off against Nick Martinez. Dickey has opted to have the roof closed in his Rogers Centre starts to help his knuckleball in a controlled environment. In his two open air starts this season, Dickey has allowed eight runs on 12 hits in 10.1 innings of work with a 7/9 K/BB ratio. That's a WHIP of more than two. In open air starts last season, Dickey was 7-11 with a 4.77 ERA and allowed 26 HR in 145.1 innings of work.

Dickey has had plenty of trouble controlling the ball this season with a walk rate well above average at 11.3 percent. His HR/FB rate is well below his career average and the warm conditions in Texas could help normalize that number. Hitters are chasing less this season and Dickey is pitching from behind more. We'd be on the side opposite Dickey if not for the strange circumstances for the Rangers.

Nick Martinez is forced back into the rotation due to injuries to Matt Harrison and Ron Washington's wish to give Colby Lewis a couple additional days of rest after his 108-pitch outing in his last start. Martinez threw 34 pitches on Wednesday after throwing 39 on Monday. In two starts to start the season, Martinez allowed seven runs in 11 innings with a 4/6 K/BB ratio.

To further exacerbate the problems for Texas, Alexi Ogando left hurt on Saturday night and Robbie Ross lasted just 4.1 innings. It remains to be seen what Martinez's pitch limit will be, but the Rangers are probably going to burn through their bullpen again on Sunday.

This game has the potential to be very high scoring with Dickey having to command the knuckleball in a tough environment and Martinez having to deal with a strange set of circumstances.

PLAY: TOR/TEX OVER


Pick Made: May 18 2014 4:47AM PST
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