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Sat, 05/17/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
double-dime bet 958 PHI / 957 CIN Under 7.5 Pinnacle
Results: L, -$240
Analysis:
958 Cincinnati at Philadelphia

A day after the Reds scored three runs in the first inning the next 17 half innings yielded no runs, a solid pitching matchup will commence at Citizens Bank Park between Homer Bailey and Cole Hamels. Bailey has been pretty unfortunate this season with a high BABIP and an ugly home run rate. The home run rate is a little bit misleading because he allowed four home runs in one five-inning start against Pittsburgh and has allowed just four in his other seven starts covering 42.2 innings. Bailey has above average swing and miss rates on his slider, changeup, and curveball. The velocity gains he made in 2013 have stuck around. His arsenal is too good to continue posting an ERA in the 5.00 range.

For Bailey, his 3.53 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA are far better indicators of his true talent level given the stuff he's showcased. It's been starting to turn around with a 2.95 ERA and a 3.42 FIP in three May starts. It's hard when a guy has to dig out of an early season hole as a pitcher and Bailey has been much better than the numbers indicate.

Cole Hamels got some additional rest after throwing 133 pitches on May 11 and that should benefit him. The Reds entered play on Friday ranked 25th in wOBA against left-handed pitching at .292. Through four starts, Hamels has a .408 BABIP against, which isn't going to continue for very long with a pitcher of his skill set.

A lot of Hamels's numbers fall outside the range of his career averages because of the layoff and return from injury. He also didn't have much of a Spring Training to prepare for the season. In his fifth start, the Hamels that we've come to expect should start to show up and against a lineup that struggles mightily with lefties, that should mean runs will be at a premium for both teams.

PLAY: CIN/PHI UNDER


Pick Made: May 17 2014 4:35AM PST
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