Results: L, -$240Analysis:
Cincinnati at Philadelphia
A day after
the Reds scored three runs in the first inning the next 17 half
innings yielded no runs, a solid pitching matchup will commence at
Citizens Bank Park between Homer Bailey and Cole Hamels. Bailey has
been pretty unfortunate this season with a high BABIP and an ugly
home run rate. The home run rate is a little bit misleading because
he allowed four home runs in one five-inning start against
Pittsburgh and has allowed just four in his other seven starts
covering 42.2 innings. Bailey has above average swing and miss
rates on his slider, changeup, and curveball. The velocity gains he
made in 2013 have stuck around. His arsenal is too good to continue
posting an ERA in the 5.00 range.
his 3.53 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA are far better indicators of his true
talent level given the stuff he's showcased. It's been starting to
turn around with a 2.95 ERA and a 3.42 FIP in three May starts.
It's hard when a guy has to dig out of an early season hole as a
pitcher and Bailey has been much better than the numbers
got some additional rest after throwing 133 pitches on May 11 and
that should benefit him. The Reds entered play on Friday ranked
25th in wOBA against left-handed pitching at .292. Through four
starts, Hamels has a .408 BABIP against, which isn't going to
continue for very long with a pitcher of his skill set.
A lot of
Hamels's numbers fall outside the range of his career averages
because of the layoff and return from injury. He also didn't have
much of a Spring Training to prepare for the season. In his fifth
start, the Hamels that we've come to expect should start to show up
and against a lineup that struggles mightily with lefties, that
should mean runs will be at a premium for both teams.
Pick Made: May 17 2014 4:35AM PST