Mobile version of this content for your phone at PregameMobile.com (click now to access)

Pick Archive

The Pros
(expert handicappers)
Fezzik | today's note
Monday BEST BET OF THE DAYStrongest MLB play $19.00 Add to Cart
JR ODonnell | today's note
Free Pick: Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Monday 3* Respect Game O Month MLBBiggest 3* move for JULY 103-65 3* $22.00 Add to Cart
Stephen Nover | today's note
UNDERDOG CRUSHER - 9-0 SPOT! Perfect on Saturday and Sunday $25.00 Add to Cart
Scott Spreitzer | today's note
Free Pick: Colorado at Chicago
MLB MONDAY NIGHT KNOCKOUT!9-3, 75% Knockout Run! $20.00 Add to Cart
Dave Cokin | today's note
Free Pick: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay
Rare BIG Underdog20+ units MLB Profit in 2014 $19.00 Add to Cart
Dollar-A-Day | see more
5-Pros: 5 Premium Picks DailyLess than $1 a Day! $1 Week Trial! $29.00 $1.00 Add to Cart
Goodfella | today's note
GOODFELLA 7-DAY ALL ACCESS PACKAGE73-41 (64%) GAME OF WEEK WIN STREAK $119.00 Add to Cart
Bryan Leonard | see more
Bryan's 7 Day All Access PackageSaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $149.00 Add to Cart
Dave Essler | today's note
Dave's 7 Day All Access PackageSaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 $89.00 Add to Cart
Dr. Ed Meyer | today's note
Dr. Ed's 7 Day All Access PackageSaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 Add to Cart
Greg Shaker | today's note
Greg's 7 Day ALL ACCESS packageSaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 Add to Cart
Spartan | today's note
Free Pick: Washington at Miami
SPARTANS 7 DAY ALL ACCESS PACKAGESaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 Add to Cart
Tony George | see more
Tony's 7 Day ALL ACCESS Package Saves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 Add to Cart
Bulk Dollars | see more
$300 gets you $500 40% Bonus on Your Money! $500.00 $300.00 Add to Cart
Chuck Edel | see more
I like to let my games do the talking!
See all the Pregame Pros
Pregame.com is the lowest priced top-quality pick site on the net! (less than so-called "gua­rant­eed picks")
Pregame Rewards
Rewards Dollars:
10% of purchases
Rewards Points:
20% of purchases
Find out more
Discounts Available
0
See all discounts
Shopping Cart
SubTotal: 0 Items $0.00
Discount: $0.00
Pregame Dollars: $0.00
Promotion Code: $0.00
Total: $0.00
Checkout
Pregame Deals
Tweets from Pros
Pregame is the most quoted sports betting site in the world! (See latest)
Fri, 05/16/14 - 8:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 926 MIN (-110) 5Dimes vs 925 SEA
Results: W, $200
Analysis: 926 Seattle at Minnesota

The Mariners head to Minneapolis for a weekend set against the Twins at Target Field. The series opener on Friday will feature a matchup between Chris Young and Kyle Gibson. Chris Young is due for some major regression. His ERA is 2.63, but his FIP is 4.80, his xFIP is 5.78, and his SIERA is 5.95. Those are all atrocious numbers in the advanced metrics. Young has made five of his six starts in extreme pitcher's parks with starts in Seattle, Miami, Oakland, and Yankee Stadium. Over 58 percent of Young's balls in play are fly balls. While Target Field is a rather neutral park, in large part because of the high wall in right field, the Mariners are one of the league's worst defensive teams and the left center and right center gaps are big at Target Field.

With advanced metrics like that, an above average walk rate, one of the league's worst strikeout rates for starters, and a matchup against a patient Twins lineup, this is a bad matchup for Young. He also throws nearly 80 percent fastballs and the Twins are the third-best offense in the league at hitting fastballs so far this season. Young's BABIP against is .179. He's always had a better than average BABIP because of the number of fly balls and a career made up of pitching for teams in good pitcher's parks, but it's still .251. That's more than a 70-point difference. Pitchers that can't strike hitters out shouldn't post 81% left on base rates. A lot of regression is coming for Young, especially in road parks. It should start here.

Kyle Gibson should get some help from Mother Nature in this start because cool, damp conditions will slow down ground balls and should make for some easier plays for the infielders. Gibson has a ground ball rate of nearly 50 percent and an infield fly ball rate of nearly 16 percent. Gibson is able to limit extra-base hits, which means that the opposition has to string hits together to score runs. The Mariners are batting just .230 on the season, which ranks 28th. Based on Gibson's Zone%, his walk rate should start to go down throughout the season. He's also pitching from ahead in the count more than last year.

Ultimately, the regression that we see projected in Young's advanced metrics are the big reason why we like this play. The Twins should put up a nice big number for Gibson and let their solid bullpen do the rest.

PLAY: MINNESOTA


Pick Made: May 16 2014 4:43AM PST
> See Bryan Leonard's Premium Picks
Start with Trust!
Privacy: 100% - No Spam Ever!   Security: Yes - SSL encrypted!   Satisfaction: Guaranteed!
Pregame.com is located and licensed in Las Vegas, Nevada.