Mobile version of this content for your phone at PregameMobile.com (click now to access)

Pick Archive

The Pros
(expert handicappers)
Scott Spreitzer | today's note
Free Pick: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
3* CFL MONDAY DAYTIME KNOCKOUT!7-2, 78% in 2014! *20-7 CFL Run! $25.00 Add to Cart
Fezzik | today's note
Free Pick: Edmonton at Calgary
CFB EARLY BIRD PLAYS for week3* BET RELEASED more at 11 am est $29.00 (for Saturday) Add to Cart
Stephen Nover | today's note
TRIPLE STAR CFB GAME OF THE WEEK16-8 (67%) 3* Run; Top Wk1 Play! $25.00 Add to Cart
Teddy Covers | today's note
3* Big Ticket Labor Day ESPN $$14-4 78% NCAA Football Big Tickets $25.00 Add to Cart
Ken Thomson | today's note
Last Day! FB All-Access DiscountFootball Price Never This Low Again $1,500.00 $795.00 Add to Cart
Dave Cokin | today's note
Last Day! FB All-Access DiscountFootball Price Never This Low Again $1,500.00 $795.00 Add to Cart
Goodfella | today's note
NFL OPENING WEEK DIVISIONAL 3* GOWBIGGEST BET OF THE ENTIRE NFL WEEK! $26.00 (for Sunday) Add to Cart
Dave Essler | today's note
Last Day! FB All-Access DiscountFootball Price Never This Low Again $1,500.00 $795.00 Add to Cart
Bryan Leonard | today's note
Last Day! FB All-Access DiscountFootball Price Never This Low Again $1,500.00 $795.00 Add to Cart
JR ODonnell | today's note
Free Pick: Toronto at Hamilton
HUGE Rare Air CFB Cannes/Ville 3* 3* @ 118-77 ... CFB 46-20 70% Run. $18.00 Add to Cart
Dr. Ed Meyer | see more
Doc's TWO-PACK of MLB SIDESUp over 30 DIMES RECENTLY!! $25.00 Add to Cart
Greg Shaker | see more
Last Day! FB All-Access DiscountFootball Price Never This Low Again $1,500.00 $795.00 Add to Cart
Andr√© Gomes | today's note
NFL All-Access DiscountPrice Never This Low Again! $750.00 $595.00 Add to Cart
Spartan | today's note
Last Day! FB All-Access DiscountFootball Price Never This Low Again $1,500.00 $795.00 Add to Cart
Tony George | today's note
Labor Day NCAA Winner $15 Holiday Special $15.00 Add to Cart
See all the Pregame Pros
Pregame.com is the lowest priced top-quality pick site on the net! (less than so-called "gua­rant­eed picks")
Pregame Rewards
Rewards Dollars:
10% of purchases
Rewards Points:
20% of purchases
Find out more
Discounts Available
0
See all discounts
Shopping Cart
SubTotal: 0 Items $0.00
Discount: $0.00
Pregame Dollars: $0.00
Promotion Code: $0.00
Total: $0.00
Checkout
Pregame Deals
Tweets from Pros
Pregame is the most quoted sports betting site in the world! (See latest)
Fri, 05/16/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 906 PHI (+100) 5Dimes vs 905 CIN
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
906 Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Regression remains on the horizon for Alfredo Simon when he and the Reds travel to Philadelphia following a doubleheader to take on Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies. Simon is still due for regression with a 2.89 ERA, a 5.14 FIP, a 4.49 xFIP, and a 4.66 SIERA. Simon has faced 45 batters since he last struck one out, making two starts, against Milwaukee and Colorado, without a strikeout. The last three batters he faced in his start against the Cubs also put balls in play. Simon has started to work up in the zone more as hitters have made contact with over 92 percent of pitches outside the zone in his last two starts. Without hitters chasing and missing, Simon's margin for error is extremely slim. He's allowed allowed five home runs over his last two starts.

With the home runs, Simon's BABIP of .211 is actually lower than his batting average against at .216. Ground balls will start finding holes and if balls keep leaving the yard, that increases the chances of multi-run homers. Teams are getting better advance reports on Simon and it's showing as his swinging strike rate dwindles. Regression should continue in this outing and the Reds just played a doubleheader. Even though Johnny Cueto threw a complete game in Game 1, Simon will be expected to provide length and will have to work through any issues, which could lead to a really terrible stat line.

Kyle Kendrick is pitching about as well as you would expect. He's a pitch-to-contact ground ball guy with an ERA around 4.00 and his xFIP and SIERA project him in that range. His HR/FB rate is three percent above his career average, so that should come down and with it, his ERA and FIP will come down.

With a road game following a doubleheader and the advanced metrics painting a pessimistic picture of Simon's start, we'll take the Phillies here and trust in the numbers.

PLAY: PHILADELPHIA



Pick Made: May 16 2014 4:42AM PST
> See Bryan Leonard's Premium Picks
Start with Trust!
Privacy: 100% - No Spam Ever!   Security: Yes - SSL encrypted!   Satisfaction: Guaranteed!
Pregame.com is located and licensed in Las Vegas, Nevada.