Mobile version of this content for your phone at PregameMobile.com (click now to access)

Pick Archive

The Pros
(expert handicappers)
Fezzik | today's note
Free Pick: Pittsburgh at Washington
MLB 3* GAME OF THE MONTH!18-7 3* Run, HUGE pitching Mismatch $25.00 $1.00 Add to Cart
sleepyj | today's note
Free Pick: Dallas at Seattle
MLB 3*** / "Bookmaker Blast" !!!We Make It 5 In A Row !! $5.00 Add to Cart
Stephen Nover | today's note
EARLY GAME DISCOUNT TOTALS CASHER8-3-1 (73%) MLB Totals Run! $17.00 Add to Cart
Spartan | today's note
Free Pick: Missouri at W. Virginia
NFL PRESEASON FEATURED RELEASE!Two Time NFL Handicapping Champion! $25.00 Add to Cart
Bulk Dollars | see more
NEW $100 Gets You $200 Bulk DollarsLimited-Time: Rare 100% Bonus $200.00 $100.00 Add to Cart
Dave Cokin | today's note
Free Pick: Arizona at Houston
3* CFB GAME OF WEEK! 104-78 CFB Win Streak! $25.00 Add to Cart
JR ODonnell | today's note
Free Pick: Atlanta at Miami
3* NFLX TOP PLAY CLOSER STRONG 10-4 71% NFLX RUN!!! $25.00 Add to Cart
Ben Burns | today's note
BURNS' THURSDAY NBC MAIN EVENT!(3-0 IN WEEK 2) $25.00 Add to Cart
Dave Essler | today's note
Early Bird Football ALL-ACCESSLast Chance Lowest Price EVER!! $2,500.00 $875.00 Add to Cart
Goodfella | see more
Early Bird Football ALL-ACCESSLast Chance Lowest Price EVER!! $2,500.00 $875.00 Add to Cart
Ralph Michaels | today's note
NFL Preseason Play of the DayWeek #3 - Most like regular Season $15.00 Add to Cart
Brad Powers | see more
CFB Early-Bird All-AccessEnds Soon: Lowest Price Ever! $1,250.00 $549.00 Add to Cart
Pauly Howard | today's note
NFL 3* TOTAL OF WEEK! First 3* this Season! $25.00 (for Saturday) Add to Cart
Bruce Marshall | see more
Early Bird Football ALL-ACCESSLast Chance Lowest Price EVER!! $2,500.00 $875.00 Add to Cart
Greg Shaker | today's note
TRIPLE DIME CFB TOTAL DESTROYER64% 2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WINNERS $25.00 Add to Cart
See all the Pregame Pros
Pregame.com is the lowest priced top-quality pick site on the net! (less than so-called "gua­rant­eed picks")
Pregame Rewards
Rewards Dollars:
10% of purchases
Rewards Points:
20% of purchases
Find out more
Discounts Available
0
See all discounts
Shopping Cart
SubTotal: 0 Items $0.00
Discount: $0.00
Pregame Dollars: $0.00
Promotion Code: $0.00
Total: $0.00
Checkout
Pregame Deals
Tweets from Pros
Pregame is the most quoted sports betting site in the world! (See latest)
Fri, 05/16/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 906 PHI (+100) Pinnacle vs 905 CIN
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
906 Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Regression remains on the horizon for Alfredo Simon when he and the Reds travel to Philadelphia following a doubleheader to take on Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies. Simon is still due for regression with a 2.89 ERA, a 5.14 FIP, a 4.49 xFIP, and a 4.66 SIERA. Simon has faced 45 batters since he last struck one out, making two starts, against Milwaukee and Colorado, without a strikeout. The last three batters he faced in his start against the Cubs also put balls in play. Simon has started to work up in the zone more as hitters have made contact with over 92 percent of pitches outside the zone in his last two starts. Without hitters chasing and missing, Simon's margin for error is extremely slim. He's allowed allowed five home runs over his last two starts.

With the home runs, Simon's BABIP of .211 is actually lower than his batting average against at .216. Ground balls will start finding holes and if balls keep leaving the yard, that increases the chances of multi-run homers. Teams are getting better advance reports on Simon and it's showing as his swinging strike rate dwindles. Regression should continue in this outing and the Reds just played a doubleheader. Even though Johnny Cueto threw a complete game in Game 1, Simon will be expected to provide length and will have to work through any issues, which could lead to a really terrible stat line.

Kyle Kendrick is pitching about as well as you would expect. He's a pitch-to-contact ground ball guy with an ERA around 4.00 and his xFIP and SIERA project him in that range. His HR/FB rate is three percent above his career average, so that should come down and with it, his ERA and FIP will come down.

With a road game following a doubleheader and the advanced metrics painting a pessimistic picture of Simon's start, we'll take the Phillies here and trust in the numbers.

PLAY: PHILADELPHIA



Pick Made: May 16 2014 4:42AM PST
> See Bryan Leonard's Premium Picks
Start with Trust!
Privacy: 100% - No Spam Ever!   Security: Yes - SSL encrypted!   Satisfaction: Guaranteed!
Pregame.com is located and licensed in Las Vegas, Nevada.