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Fri, 05/16/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 906 PHI (+100) Pinnacle vs 905 CIN
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
906 Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Regression remains on the horizon for Alfredo Simon when he and the Reds travel to Philadelphia following a doubleheader to take on Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies. Simon is still due for regression with a 2.89 ERA, a 5.14 FIP, a 4.49 xFIP, and a 4.66 SIERA. Simon has faced 45 batters since he last struck one out, making two starts, against Milwaukee and Colorado, without a strikeout. The last three batters he faced in his start against the Cubs also put balls in play. Simon has started to work up in the zone more as hitters have made contact with over 92 percent of pitches outside the zone in his last two starts. Without hitters chasing and missing, Simon's margin for error is extremely slim. He's allowed allowed five home runs over his last two starts.

With the home runs, Simon's BABIP of .211 is actually lower than his batting average against at .216. Ground balls will start finding holes and if balls keep leaving the yard, that increases the chances of multi-run homers. Teams are getting better advance reports on Simon and it's showing as his swinging strike rate dwindles. Regression should continue in this outing and the Reds just played a doubleheader. Even though Johnny Cueto threw a complete game in Game 1, Simon will be expected to provide length and will have to work through any issues, which could lead to a really terrible stat line.

Kyle Kendrick is pitching about as well as you would expect. He's a pitch-to-contact ground ball guy with an ERA around 4.00 and his xFIP and SIERA project him in that range. His HR/FB rate is three percent above his career average, so that should come down and with it, his ERA and FIP will come down.

With a road game following a doubleheader and the advanced metrics painting a pessimistic picture of Simon's start, we'll take the Phillies here and trust in the numbers.

PLAY: PHILADELPHIA



Pick Made: May 16 2014 4:42AM PST
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