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Fri, 05/16/14 - 8:40 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 910 COL (-152) Pinnacle vs 909 SDP
Results: W, $300
Analysis:
910 San Diego at Colorado

After playing a doubleheader in Cincinnati, the Padres have to fly to Colorado to open up a weekend set against the Rockies. Fly ball specialist Eric Stults will take the mound for the Padres and the Rockies will counter with Jorge de la Rosa. Stults has not fared well in Coors Field, which should come as no surprise. In 149 PA, Rockies hitters have batted .310/.401/.509. Sixteen of the 39 hits allowed have gone for extra bases.

At home, the Rockies offense has put up video game numbers. As a team, the Rockies are batting .355/.401/.600/1.001 with 33 home runs in 715 plate appearances. Not only are the Coors numbers and the Rockies offensive numbers damning evidence against Stults, he's simply not pitching that well overall. He's seen a drop in strikeouts with a minor drop in walks and has allowed eight home runs in 39.1 innings of work. Location has been a problem for him and bad pitches go a long way in Denver.

Jorge de la Rosa has been a little unfortunate this season with a ground ball rate of 55 percent and an elite defense behind him, but his ERA is still 4.81 with a 4.78 FIP. His HR/FB rate will come down, even with Coors Field as a home park, because the bulk of his career has been there and it has rarely been as high as 16.7 percent.

de la Rosa is a guy that had his statistics skewed by a couple bad outings. In his last five starts, de la Rosa has thrown 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA. He has thrown 60 percent strikes and has held opposing hitters to a .245/.325/.364 slash line.

After a long day in Cincinnati and a horrible situation for Eric Stults, plus the Padres very inconsistent and below average offense, the Rockies have an opportunity to win this game in a real big way.

PLAY: COLORADO 


Pick Made: May 16 2014 4:41AM PST
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