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Wed, 05/14/14 - 8:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 908 MIL (-118) Pinnacle vs 907 PIT
Results: L, -$236
Analysis:
908 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

There are some concerning injury red flags in Francisco Liriano's profile that may have an impact against a team like the Brewers. Liriano has seen a drop in velocity and control this season. Liriano has a walk rate above 11 percent and has seen his strikeout rate drop 2.3 percent from last season. One of the biggest indicators for us is that Liriano is throwing fewer sliders this season and has replaced them with change-ups. Sliders are one of the most detrimental pitches for a pitcher to throw and for a guy with past elbow trouble to be using his slider less is a concern.

For this start specifically, there are some negative trends that could be extremely hurtful at Miller Park. Liriano has replaced some of his ground balls with fly balls. After allowing nine home runs in 161 innings last season, he has already allowed five in 42.2 innings this season. Miller Park is one of the top hitter's parks in baseball and Liriano seems to be having trouble commanding his pitches down in the zone. Righties have hit four of the five home runs and have a 1.67 K/BB ratio against Liriano this season. The Brewers right-handed heavy lineup could have a field day off of Liriano.

Wily Peralta throws a lot of strikes, pitches to contact, and uses the above average defense behind him. His walk rate is bordering on elite at 4.7 percent. He still sits 95 with both his four-seamer and two-seamer and has replaced some of the change-ups he used to throw with more two-seamers. That makes him more efficient and it helps him in the sense that he doesn't have to rely on hitters chasing pitches to get outs. He's throwing more pitches in the zone and that's clearly having an impact on his season. His home run rate will start to trend downward with a bigger sample size and the adjustments to his repertoire to eliminate most of his walks still appears to be undervalued by the oddsmakers.

PLAY: MILWAUKEE


Pick Made: May 14 2014 4:37AM PST
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