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Wed, 05/14/14 - 3:45 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 904 SFG (-115) Hilton vs 903 ATL
Results: W, $300
Analysis: 904 Atlanta at San Francisco

Make no mistake that we like Julio Teheran, but regression is coming for the right-hander and a very hot getaway day game in San Francisco could be just the place. Teheran will be opposed by Madison Bumgarner. Teheran has a sparkling 1.71 ERA in 58 innings covering eight starts so far this season. However, his 3.84 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, and 3.77 SIERA suggest regression on the horizon. Consider that Teheran is pitching this well in spite of drops in strikeout rate and pop up rate. More balls in play not hit as pop ups are eventually going to catch up to Teheran, who has the second-lowest BABIP against among qualified starters. He also has the third-highest ERA-FIP discrepancy. We picked out Alfredo Simon, who was near the top of this list, in his last start and the Rockies blasted him.

Generally, AT&T Park is thought of as a great pitcher's park, but a 93 degree day will lead to more carry than usual at the yard and Teheran's lack of strikeouts and pop ups will lead to a lot of long fly balls.

Madison Bumgarner is due for some progression in his numbers. We backed him in his last start against the Dodgers and he was spectacular. More starts like that should be coming. His strikeout rate continues to rise, now at 25.7 percent. The Braves swing and miss a lot. Bumgarner also has a .346 BABIP against, the ninth-highest among qualified starters. That BABIP against is 54 points above his career average. It's going to come down. His chase rate is up for the sixth straight season, which means that his pitching savvy is catching up to his stuff every year and he's going to continue to improve. He's one of the game's elite pitchers that doesn't get enough love.

With regression in Teheran's metrics and a fine matchup for Bumgarner, we like the Giants a lot in this spot.

PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO


Pick Made: May 14 2014 4:22AM PST
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