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Tue, 05/13/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 965 DET (-106) Pinnacle vs 966 BAL
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
965 Detroit at Baltimore

A recency bias has influenced the line too much for the Tigers-Orioles matchup on Tuesday night. Ubaldo Jimenez is not fixed despite a 13/3 K/BB ratio and a 0.71 ERA in his last two starts. Jimenez allowed nine baserunners in 5.1 innings against the Rays in his last start. He got lucky to strand the vast majority of them. His velocity is down and hitters are picking on the pitches he does actually throw in the strike zone.

Camden Yards has not been kind to Jimenez this season with a 6.75 ERA in 17.1 innings there. The Tigers have not been kind to Jimenez in his career. As a Cleveland Indian, Jimenez posted a 5.25 ERA against the Tigers over 73.2 innings of work. Current Tigers are batting .291/.380/.456 against Jimenez in his career.

Drew Smyly has posted a 3.80 ERA as a starter so far this season, right in line with most of his advanced metrics, so you have a pretty good idea what to expect from Smyly. He draws an Orioles lineup that ranks 24th in wOBA against lefties so far this season and 26th in wRC+. Smyly's zone-contact percentage has gone down by nearly six percent this season, which is a very good sign for a young pitcher because he's getting swings and misses in the zone rather than relying on the hitters to chase.

The Orioles don't have a lot of experience facing Smyly. They are 2-for-24 in a limited sample size. That should work to Smyly's favor, especially because he could have a sizable lead before the Orioles start to figure him out. Smyly should have been a starter all along and his arsenal is much deeper than people expect because he was mostly a matchup lefty under Jim Leyland. This is the right role and the Tigers will get rewarded throughout the season, including Tuesday night.

PLAY: DETROIT



Pick Made: May 13 2014 4:45AM PST
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