Results: W, $200Analysis: 973 Tampa Bay at
With a day to
rest the overworked bullpen, David Price and the Rays make the long
trip to the Pacific Northwest to take on Hisashi Iwakuma and the
Mariners. There aren't many chances to get David Price at -110, but
the oddsmakers are overreacting to Price's start to the season.
Price has a 4.53 ERA, but a lot of that can be attributed to bad
luck with a .344 BABIP against. Price's 3.50 FIP signals that
improvement is coming and his 2.63 xFIP suggests that his home run
rate is way above average given the number of fly balls and the
home run rate is going to normalize soon. There's no better park
for a home run to normalize than Safeco Field in Seattle.
seen a small drop in velocity, but he's still throwing with the
same control and inducing more swings and misses, so we're not
worrying about an underlying injury. Price has a K/BB ratio of 58/6
on the season. His line drive rate is right in line with his career
average and the home run rate will come down to a reasonable
number. He's throwing first-pitch strikes to over 73 percent of
hitters, getting more swings and misses, both inside and outside
the zone, and has a 2.70 SIERA. He's really underpriced against a
Mariners lineup full of left-handed hitters.
Iwakuma came back from the DL with guns blazing, but that was
against the Astros and an aggressive Kansas City lineup that plays
right into his hands. The Rays will force Iwakuma to get into the
strike zone, which could be a problem given that he only threw 38
percent of his pitches in the strike zone against the Royals in his
last start. He is still trying to build up arm strength, so his
velocity is down a couple ticks from where it was.
rank 27th in defensive runs saved at -20 already on the season.
Most of the infielders are below average on the season and Iwakuma
is a ground ball pitcher. That's something to watch for in this
outing against a Rays team that has several guys that run
true test for Iwakuma comes in this start and Price is due for a
dominant outing if you believe in the advanced metrics like we
Pick Made: May 13 2014 4:43AM PST