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Mon, 05/12/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 911 DET (-110) Pinnacle vs 912 BAL
Results: W, $200
911 Detroit at Baltimore

Rick Porcello will get the call for the Tigers when they open up a series in Baltimore against the Orioles. He'll be opposed by Bud Norris. Porcello is taking major strides forward this season with a minuscule 4.1 percent walk rate and more swings and misses in the strike zone. Increased use of his slider, especially early in counts, has given Porcello the opportunity to make hitters swing at the pitches he wants them to swing at. The result has been a higher chase rate and Porcello's drop in strikeouts has been replaced by an increase in pop ups. He has refined his changeup and is no longer just a sinkerball pitcher with mediocre offspeed stuff.

The changes are evident with a 3.49 ERA, a 3.16 FIP, a 3.15 xFIP, and a 3.50 SIERA. Given that there isn't a big discrepancy in Porcello's advanced metrics, his current performance should be the expectation.

Bud Norris, on the other hand, is losing the one thing that made him a viable starting pitcher. Norris is experiencing a decline in strikeout rate for the third straight season. He's become much more reliant on the fastball, leading to a rise in home run rate. Norris has a 3.82 ERA but a 4.72 FIP would suggest that regression is on the way. Norris has been extremely lucky with stranding runners, leaving men on base at an 81 percent clip. That won't continue for a guy experiencing a strikeout decrease.

With two pitchers going in opposite directions, the value is on Detroit in the series opener on Monday night.


Pick Made: May 12 2014 5:16AM PST
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