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Sun, 05/11/14 - 1:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 964 TOR (-113) 5Dimes vs 963 ANA
Results: L, -$339
Analysis:
964 LA Angels at Toronto

Jered Weaver and the Angels wrap up a three-game weekend set at Rogers Centre on Sunday against Drew Hutchison and the Blue Jays. This looks to be a very bad matchup for Weaver. Weaver has thrown exactly 759.1 career innings both at home and on the road. Away from Angel Stadium, Weaver has a 3.82 ERA compared to a 2.68 at home. He has allowed 28 more home runs on the road. So far this season, Weaver has allowed four home runs in just 17.1 innings away from home. He sports a respectable 3.57 ERA, but that's only because of a .208 BABIP that is not going to continue.

Weaver's walk rate has climbed this season as his skills have declined. His 3.48 ERA is overshadowed by a 4.22 FIP and a 4.14 xFIP. Weaver can outpitch his advanced metrics at home with the marine air knocking down fly balls, but Rogers Centre is the second-best park for hitting home runs so far this season. As Weaver's velocity continues to drop, his margin for error gets thinner and thinner. That's dangerous against a Blue Jays lineup that has been hitting well of late.

Drew Hutchison has been the victim of some bad luck that should normalize in the very near future. Hutchison is 15th in ERA-FIP discrepancy, a sign that better things are on the horizon. Hutchison has a 3.08 FIP, but a .330 BABIP has led to a 4.17 ERA. He's posting a robust strikeout rate of 25.6 percent and has a below average walk rate. He's pitching much better than his traditional numbers indicate.

Hutchison has two above average breaking balls and the Angels only have 13 plate appearances worth of experience against him. Expect the Angels to have to see him a couple times through before having much success and Weaver could have easily given up four or five runs by that point.

PLAY: TORONTO


Pick Made: May 11 2014 4:34AM PST
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