Results: L, -$339Analysis:
LA Angels at Toronto
and the Angels wrap up a three-game weekend set at Rogers Centre on
Sunday against Drew Hutchison and the Blue Jays. This looks to be a
very bad matchup for Weaver. Weaver has thrown exactly 759.1 career
innings both at home and on the road. Away from Angel Stadium,
Weaver has a 3.82 ERA compared to a 2.68 at home. He has allowed 28
more home runs on the road. So far this season, Weaver has allowed
four home runs in just 17.1 innings away from home. He sports a
respectable 3.57 ERA, but that's only because of a .208 BABIP that
is not going to continue.
rate has climbed this season as his skills have declined. His 3.48
ERA is overshadowed by a 4.22 FIP and a 4.14 xFIP. Weaver can
outpitch his advanced metrics at home with the marine air knocking
down fly balls, but Rogers Centre is the second-best park for
hitting home runs so far this season. As Weaver's velocity
continues to drop, his margin for error gets thinner and thinner.
That's dangerous against a Blue Jays lineup that has been hitting
well of late.
Hutchison has been the victim of some bad luck that should
normalize in the very near future. Hutchison is 15th in ERA-FIP
discrepancy, a sign that better things are on the horizon.
Hutchison has a 3.08 FIP, but a .330 BABIP has led to a 4.17 ERA.
He's posting a robust strikeout rate of 25.6 percent and has a
below average walk rate. He's pitching much better than his
traditional numbers indicate.
two above average breaking balls and the Angels only have 13 plate
appearances worth of experience against him. Expect the Angels to
have to see him a couple times through before having much success
and Weaver could have easily given up four or five runs by that
Pick Made: May 11 2014 4:34AM PST