Results: W, $218Analysis:
Colorado at Cincinnati
Rockies will get their crack at a pitcher more than overdue for
regression. The Rockies and their outstanding offense will take on
Alfredo Simon on Saturday night in Cincinnati. They will counter
with Jordan Lyles. Alfredo Simon is really pitching over his head
so far this season. The reliever turned starter has posted a 1.99
ERA in 40.2 innings, but he has a FIP of 4.32, a xFIP of 4.36, and
a SIERA of 4.49. His strikeout rate is 13.8 percent and league
average for starters is 19.7 percent. That's while issuing walks at
a league average rate. His BABIP is .192, which is not going to
continue for a guy with a ground ball rate of nearly 50
easily represent the biggest challenge of the season to date for
Simon. His other six starts came against the Mets, Rays, Cubs,
Pirates, Cubs, and Brewers. The Rockies offense has been on a
different planet this season and Simon's luck is about to run
made a bit of a change this season, using more of a two-seamer
instead of breaking balls. The results have been very positive.
Lyles can command his fastball better than his breaking stuff. He's
throwing more strikes and letting the elite infield defense play
behind him. Lyles has an above average walk rate and has induced
ground balls on 56 percent of balls in play.
We find that
defense is not properly accounted for in most lines and Lyles
continues to be undervalued with the defense he has behind him.
That's clearly the case here as Lyles and the Rockies take on a
pitcher that has been ridiculously lucky to date.
Pick Made: May 10 2014 4:43AM PST