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Fezzik | today's note
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Free Pick: Milwaukee at St. Louis
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Free Pick: Iowa at Pittsburgh
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Bryan Leonard | today's note
Free Pick: Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
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Sat, 05/10/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 909 COL (+109) 5Dimes vs 910 CIN
Results: W, $218
Analysis:
909 Colorado at Cincinnati

The Colorado Rockies will get their crack at a pitcher more than overdue for regression. The Rockies and their outstanding offense will take on Alfredo Simon on Saturday night in Cincinnati. They will counter with Jordan Lyles. Alfredo Simon is really pitching over his head so far this season. The reliever turned starter has posted a 1.99 ERA in 40.2 innings, but he has a FIP of 4.32, a xFIP of 4.36, and a SIERA of 4.49. His strikeout rate is 13.8 percent and league average for starters is 19.7 percent. That's while issuing walks at a league average rate. His BABIP is .192, which is not going to continue for a guy with a ground ball rate of nearly 50 percent.

The Rockies easily represent the biggest challenge of the season to date for Simon. His other six starts came against the Mets, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Cubs, and Brewers. The Rockies offense has been on a different planet this season and Simon's luck is about to run out.

Jordan Lyles made a bit of a change this season, using more of a two-seamer instead of breaking balls. The results have been very positive. Lyles can command his fastball better than his breaking stuff. He's throwing more strikes and letting the elite infield defense play behind him. Lyles has an above average walk rate and has induced ground balls on 56 percent of balls in play.

We find that defense is not properly accounted for in most lines and Lyles continues to be undervalued with the defense he has behind him. That's clearly the case here as Lyles and the Rockies take on a pitcher that has been ridiculously lucky to date.

PLAY: COLORADO


Pick Made: May 10 2014 4:43AM PST
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