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Sat, 05/10/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 903 STL (-120) Westgate vs 904 PIT
Results: L, -$240
Analysis:
 903 St. Louis at Pittsburgh

After two years of below average production from his breaking pitches, Lance Lynn has made a change in his repertoire that has yielded positive results so far this season. The shine seems to have come off of Edinson Volquez. These two face off on Saturday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

In terms of pitch value according to Fangraphs, Lance Lynn had the eighth-best fastball among qualified pitchers last season. That was on the heels of Lynn's 2012 season when he had the fifth-best fastball. This season, Lynn has thrown fewer curveballs and changeups and more fastballs. The result has been a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone, a higher strikeout rate, and fewer walks. The change has also led to more fly balls, which means fewer hits allowed, especially in pitcher-friendly parks like Busch Stadium and also PNC Park, where this start will be.

Edinson Volquez started the season looking like the comeback player of the year. That changed over his last two starts, in which he allowed 12 runs on 14 hits in 10.2 innings. The lack of strikeouts and a lucky BABIP caught up with Volquez and this looks like more of what we can expect. Volquez is striking out just 13.3 percent of batters and hitters are making contact with over 92 percent of pitches in the zone. The Pirates have scored two or fewer runs in five of Volquez's six starts.

Volquez has some regression coming against righties as they have just a .195 BABIP against him, which will go up for a ground ball guy. Lefties are posting a .393 wOBA so far this season. There's not a lot to like about Volquez's current statistical profile, while the change Lynn has made should continue to yield positive results.

PLAY: ST. LOUIS



Pick Made: May 10 2014 4:41AM PST
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