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Goodfella | today's note
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Sat, 05/10/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 928 CWS (-118) Bookmaker.com vs 927 ARI
Results: L, -$236
Analysis:
928 Arizona at Chicago White Sox

In interleague play on Saturday night, the Diamondbacks will send Wade Miley to the mound against Jose Quintana. It's not hard to explain the ERA spike for Miley. He's walking more batters and allowing more home runs. Miley enters this start with a 1.29 HR/9. League average for starters is 0.94. Miley has been brutal from the stretch so far an opposition slugging percentage of .603 with runners on base. Fastball command has been a huge issue for Miley with a fastball slash line against of .372/.431/.605/1.036. So far this season, the White Sox are the third-best team at punishing fastballs.

For whatever reason, Jose Quintana keeps getting underpriced in the market. He's a very solid, consistent starter for the White Sox. His performance is almost equal to last season so far, but a drop in home runs has lowered his advanced metrics to the point where they mirror his ERA. There's a lot to like about Quintana with the way he pitches, throwing strike one to nearly 66 percent of opposing hitters. With a Diamondbacks lineup that has little experience against Quintana, expect him to work ahead in the count a lot.

Another wrinkle about that White Sox that has not been accounted for in their lines so far this season is their improvements on defense. The White Sox have shifted far more this season than they did last season. Advance scouting reports and an understanding of spray charts are a big part of why the Pirates had such a huge turnaround last season. The White Sox are using defensive shifts a lot and that benefits a guy like Quintana. It hasn't shown up in the team pitching numbers as much as it should because of their ghastly home run rate, but it has made an impact with guys like Quintana that can keep the ball in the ballpark.

PLAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX



Pick Made: May 10 2014 4:39AM PST
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