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Sat, 05/10/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
double-dime bet 906 NYM / 905 PHI Over 7 Westgate
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
905 Philadelphia at NY Mets

A couple of pitchers in line for regression face off on Saturday night at Citi Field. Kyle Kendrick and Dillon Gee both have advanced metrics that signal some tough times on the horizon. Kendrick, a pitch to contact guy working with a below average defense behind him, has a 3.58 ERA but a 4.81 FIP. Kendrick has allowed six home runs in 37.2 innings of work, leading to the high FIP. But he also has a well below average strikeout rate and is heavily reliant on a defense that nobody wants to rely on. Kendrick is also stranding 79 percent of baserunners, which is unsustainable for a guy that doesn't strike hitters out.

Dillon Gee has a 2.51 ERA but a 4.01 FIP, a 4.10 xFIP, and a 4.22 SIERA. He's a prime regression candidate. Gee has stranded 85.7 percent of his runners with a below average strikeout rate. His .226 BABIP is 53 points below his career BABIP against. Gee does tend to strand runners at a higher rate than normal, but not 10-12 percent higher than normal. Between a drop in strikeouts and a spike in walks, regression will come sooner rather than later.

And it could come in this start. Against the Phillies, Gee has a 7.46 ERA with 70 hits allowed in 50.2 innings. In those 50.2 innings, Gee has allowed 11 home runs. Like Gee, Kendrick has struggled in this matchup. He has a respectable 3.43 ERA, but a lot of that is due to 16 unearned runs in 107.2 innings. His 1.44 WHIP is a sign that he really has not pitched well.

Along with the starting pitching matchup, the Phillies have the second-worst bullpen FIP and the Mets have the sixth-worst bullpen FIP. Given the regression coming to both pitchers, the awful bullpens, and the career numbers in this matchup, look for some runs between these two teams.

PLAY: PHI/NYM OVER


Pick Made: May 10 2014 4:30AM PST
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