Results: W, $200Analysis:
Philadelphia at NY Mets
A couple of
pitchers in line for regression face off on Saturday night at Citi
Field. Kyle Kendrick and Dillon Gee both have advanced metrics that
signal some tough times on the horizon. Kendrick, a pitch to
contact guy working with a below average defense behind him, has a
3.58 ERA but a 4.81 FIP. Kendrick has allowed six home runs in 37.2
innings of work, leading to the high FIP. But he also has a well
below average strikeout rate and is heavily reliant on a defense
that nobody wants to rely on. Kendrick is also stranding 79 percent
of baserunners, which is unsustainable for a guy that doesn't
strike hitters out.
has a 2.51 ERA but a 4.01 FIP, a 4.10 xFIP, and a 4.22 SIERA. He's
a prime regression candidate. Gee has stranded 85.7 percent of his
runners with a below average strikeout rate. His .226 BABIP is 53
points below his career BABIP against. Gee does tend to strand
runners at a higher rate than normal, but not 10-12 percent higher
than normal. Between a drop in strikeouts and a spike in walks,
regression will come sooner rather than later.
And it could
come in this start. Against the Phillies, Gee has a 7.46 ERA with
70 hits allowed in 50.2 innings. In those 50.2 innings, Gee has
allowed 11 home runs. Like Gee, Kendrick has struggled in this
matchup. He has a respectable 3.43 ERA, but a lot of that is due to
16 unearned runs in 107.2 innings. His 1.44 WHIP is a sign that he
really has not pitched well.
Along with the starting pitching matchup, the Phillies have the
second-worst bullpen FIP and the Mets have the sixth-worst bullpen
FIP. Given the regression coming to both pitchers, the awful
bullpens, and the career numbers in this matchup, look for some
runs between these two teams.
Pick Made: May 10 2014 4:30AM PST