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sleepyj | today's note
Free Pick: Cincinnati at Tulsa
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Fri, 05/09/14 - 10:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 959 SFG (-125) Bookmaker.com vs 960 LOS
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
959 San Francisco at LA Dodgers

Madison Bumgarner should be having more success than he is. His strikeout rate has increased this season to north of 25 percent. A slight increase in walks has been exacerbated by a ridiculously high BABIP of .373. Bumgarner's career .294 BABIP falls well within the normal range of BABIPs and .373 is well above that range. That number is going to normalize and Bumgarner's performance will reflect that change. Bumgarner is actually throwing more pitches in the strike zone this season than in each of the last four seasons and is getting more swings and misses in the strike zone. Those are all good developments for future performance.

In nine appearances, eight starts, at Dodger Stadium, Bumgarner has a 1.98 ERA, a 46/8 K/BB ratio, and a 0.97 WHIP. He's also 6-2 in those games.

Paul Maholm's five starts have been pretty rocky. In 28.1 innings, Maholm has allowed 35 hits, 16 runs, and has 11 strikeouts and 11 walks. He has allowed five home runs and a .496 SLG against in those five starts. The biggest problem for Maholm has been that his arsenal is not deep. The second time through the lineup, hitters are batting .381/.409/.548 and the third time through, the slugging percentage improves to .618.

Bumgarner has been the victim of some bad luck while Maholm is simply not a good pitcher. The Giants have been a surprise offensively with power and Maholm's been pitching up in the zone a lot. The advantage is clearly with the Giants and the name recognition and expectations of the Dodgers have this line giving them way too much respect.

PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO


Pick Made: May 9 2014 4:58AM PST
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