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sleepyj | today's note
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Free Pick: Atlanta at Milwaukee
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Free Pick: Butler at North Carolina
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Dave Cokin | today's note
Free Pick: South Carolina at Baylor
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Fri, 05/09/14 - 10:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 973 KAN (-113) Pinnacle vs 974 SEA
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
973 Kansas City at Seattle

Jason Vargas makes his return to the friendly confines of Safeco Field when the Royals take on the Mariners. Vargas enjoyed his time in Seattle as he posted a 3.33 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and held opposing batters to a .653 OPS. Vargas is off to a fine start this year and should be one of the few guys to seriously outpitch his advanced metrics because of Kansas City's elite defense. Vargas has limited walks, allowing free passes to just 5.2 percent of batters.

The Mariners are 23rd in OPS against lefties and have the league's lowest walk rate at 5.2 percent. Vargas has dominated lefties with a 5/1 K/BB ratio and the top Mariners threats are left-handed hitters. This is a good matchup for Vargas in a spot he's comfortable pitching in.

As a starter, Brandon Maurer has posted a 6.31 ERA in 17 starts and a 1.56 WHIP. Opposing hitters have a slash line against of .309/.363/.520/.883. Lefties have posted a .944 OPS against Maurer in his career and the Royals are going to send a lot of left-handed batters at Maurer.

With Vargas back at Safeco and Maurer's brutal track record, the Royals are definitely underpriced here.

PLAY: KANSAS CITY


Pick Made: May 9 2014 4:51AM PST
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