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Wed, 05/07/14 - 12:40 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 953 NYM (+108) Pinnacle vs 954 Mia
Results: L, -$200
Analysis: 953 NY Mets at Miami

Zack Wheeler and Tom Koehler will match up on getaway day in Miami as these two NL East foes do battle. Wheeler has a BABIP against of .360, which is extremely high given his low line drive rate. His xBABIP, or expected BABIP, should be closer to .320, which makes a substantial difference with his slightly elevated walk rate. Wheeler's 5.13 ERA is extremely misleading given his 3.15 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, and 3.72 SIERA. Wheeler's numbers are inflated by a start at Coors Field, which can be a very difficult park for pitcher's overall, but especially for those making their first start in those conditions.

Wheeler is due for some progression towards his advanced metrics and a start in a pitcher-friendly environment against a lineup he dominated in his last start against them should be the time for that to start.

On the other side, Tom Koehler is due a massive amount of regression. Koehler has a 2.41 ERA because of an anemic .215 BABIP. His 4.40 FIP and 4.67 SIERA are much better indicators of where Koehler's ERA should be. There's no Koehler's 1.5 K/BB is tied for the fourth-worst ratio among qualified starting pitchers. Without the ability to strike out batters, Koehler is stranding 85 percent of baserunners. That will not continue and things will start to even out in the very near future.

Wheeler provides great value here as an underdog with the regression that is suggested in Koehler's advanced metrics.

PLAY: NY METS



Pick Made: May 7 2014 4:38AM PST
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