Mobile version of this content for your phone at PregameMobile.com (click now to access)

Pick Archive

The Pros
(expert handicappers)
Stephen Nover | today's note
3* NIT TUESDAY DOMINATOREpic 16-5 (76%) CBB 3* Run! $25.00 Add to Cart
Fezzik | today's note
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
Dave Essler | today's note
* CBB 3* Triple Dime NIT Free NBA *Smokin - Big CBI Win - 65% GOW ! $23.00 Add to Cart
Dave Cokin | today's note
Free Pick: Los Angeles at Edmonton
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
Goodfella | today's note
N.I.T. GAME OF THE YEAR RED HOT 12-2 (86%) L/14 GOY PLAYS! $28.00 Add to Cart
Spartan | today's note
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
Brad Powers | today's note
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
Pauly Howard | today's note
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
Bruce Marshall | today's note
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
JR ODonnell | today's note
NIT Tournament CBB 3* 2* Max Bets20-14 3* CBB RUN! $23.00 Add to Cart
Greg Shaker | today's note
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
Ken Thomson | today's note
Ken Thomson's 7 DAY ALL ACCESS!Saves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 Add to Cart
Ben Burns | today's note
FAN APPRECIATION 3* NBA ANNIHILATOR**ONLY $12** $12.00 Add to Cart
Andy Iskoe | today's note
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
King Creole | see more
NEW: MLB Access thru World Series!Early-Bird Lowest Price+$150 Bonus! $1,500.00 $777.00 Add to Cart
See all the Pregame Pros
Pregame.com is the lowest priced top-quality pick site on the net! (less than so-called "gua­rant­eed picks")
Pregame Rewards
Rewards Dollars:
10% of purchases
Rewards Points:
20% of purchases
Find out more
Discounts Available
0
See all discounts
Shopping Cart
SubTotal: 0 Items $0.00
Discount: $0.00
Pregame Dollars: $0.00
Promotion Code: $0.00
Total: $0.00
Checkout
Pregame Deals
Tweets from Pros
Pregame is the most quoted sports betting site in the world! (See latest)
Wed, 05/07/14 - 12:40 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 953 NYM (+108) Pinnacle vs 954 Mia
Results: L, -$200
Analysis: 953 NY Mets at Miami

Zack Wheeler and Tom Koehler will match up on getaway day in Miami as these two NL East foes do battle. Wheeler has a BABIP against of .360, which is extremely high given his low line drive rate. His xBABIP, or expected BABIP, should be closer to .320, which makes a substantial difference with his slightly elevated walk rate. Wheeler's 5.13 ERA is extremely misleading given his 3.15 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, and 3.72 SIERA. Wheeler's numbers are inflated by a start at Coors Field, which can be a very difficult park for pitcher's overall, but especially for those making their first start in those conditions.

Wheeler is due for some progression towards his advanced metrics and a start in a pitcher-friendly environment against a lineup he dominated in his last start against them should be the time for that to start.

On the other side, Tom Koehler is due a massive amount of regression. Koehler has a 2.41 ERA because of an anemic .215 BABIP. His 4.40 FIP and 4.67 SIERA are much better indicators of where Koehler's ERA should be. There's no Koehler's 1.5 K/BB is tied for the fourth-worst ratio among qualified starting pitchers. Without the ability to strike out batters, Koehler is stranding 85 percent of baserunners. That will not continue and things will start to even out in the very near future.

Wheeler provides great value here as an underdog with the regression that is suggested in Koehler's advanced metrics.

PLAY: NY METS



Pick Made: May 7 2014 4:38AM PST
> See Bryan Leonard's Premium Picks
Start with Trust!
Privacy: 100% - No Spam Ever!   Security: Yes - SSL encrypted!   Satisfaction: Guaranteed!
Pregame.com is located and licensed in Las Vegas, Nevada.