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Mon, 05/05/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 970 PHI (-112) Bookmaker.com vs 969 TOR
Results: L, -$224
Analysis: 970 Toronto at Philadelphia

J.A. Happ will make his first Major League start of the 2014 season and his first appearance since April 23. Kyle Kendrick will take the mound for the Phillies. Happ has predominantly been a fly ball pitcher during his career and that's a scary proposition entering a good hitter's park like Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies entered play on Sunday sixth in wOBA, sixth in OPS, and fifth in slugging percentage against lefties. Happ has below average control to begin with and a very long Major League layoff will likely hurt him in this start.

Kyle Kendrick is predominantly a ground ball, pitch-to-contact type guy. His HR/FB% is well above his career rate, so that's going to come down and that will make him more effective. Kendrick pitches from in front with one of the higher first-pitch strike percentages in baseball and the team OBP for the Jays drops 160 points from 1-0 to 0-1 counts. The Blue Jays lose a little bit of offensive value with the use of the DH as both Adam Lind and Juan Francisco have SLG% of .500 or higher while DHing. It will be an adjustment for them to play in a National League park and one that should benefit the Phillies.

With so much uncertainty surrounding Happ and a pretty good idea of what to expect from Kendrick, the Phillies should be a bigger favorite.

PLAY: PHILADELPHIA


Pick Made: May 5 2014 4:35AM PST
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