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Sun, 05/04/14 - 1:35 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 920 BOS (+104) Pinnacle vs 919 OAK
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
920 Oakland at Boston

Young meets experienced on Sunday afternoon for matinee baseball at Fenway Park when Sonny Gray and the A's take on John Lackey and the Red Sox. Gray is off to a spectacular start this season, but keep in mind that four of his six starts have come at the friendly confines of O.co Coliseum and that one of his two road starts was at Safeco Field. Gray faces a much different animal pitching against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. A lot of pitchers will outpitch their advanced metrics when they pitch in extreme pitchers parks and Gray has been no exception with a 1.76 ERA to go with a 2.74 FIP and a 3.26 xFIP. Fenway Park is anything but pitcher-friendly, however, and the Red Sox are the first top 10 offense Gray will face this season.

Lackey could be a very tough matchup for the A's who have offensive success through drawing walks and working counts. Lackey has walked less than five percent of opposing batters while striking out 23.5 percent of them. His 4.88 K/BB ratio ranks 16th among 107 qualified starters. The A's will likely trot out their lefty-heavy lineup against Lackey, but he actually has fared better against lefties so far this season with a 5.4 K/BB ratio and a .240 batting average against. That could play into his favor. Lackey has pitched better than his traditional metrics with a FIP of 3.40, 0.43 runs better than his ERA.

Sonny Gray is a bit overvalued because the oddsmakers aren't taking the context of his start to the season into enough consideration. The Red Sox offense is a step up in class and Fenway Park is a much different animal than O.co Coliseum or Safeco Field.

PLAY: BOSTON


Pick Made: May 4 2014 5:02AM PST
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