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Goodfella | today's note
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Free Pick: St. Peter's at Niagara
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Sun, 05/04/14 - 4:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 909 MIL (+110) Pinnacle vs 910 CIN
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
909 Milwaukee at Cincinnati

Kyle Lohse and Alfredo Simon will take the mound for their respective teams as the Brewers and Reds wrap up a four-game series at Great American Ball Park. Lohse has been very impressive to start the season with a 2.70 ERA and a 3.64 K/BB ratio. What's really interesting about Lohse's season so far is that he's getting more swings and misses inside the strike zone and is throwing more strikes. He's throwing his breaking balls a bit more often and is using his outstanding control to induce a lot of weak outs and strikeouts.

All but one of Lohse's six starts have been quality starts, with three runs or fewer and six or more innings pitched. Between the Brewers strong defense and some run support, Lohse has gotten off to a great start this season and we expect that to continue.

The success that we don't expect to continue is that of Alfredo Simon. Simon has some unsustainable statistics in his profile that will normalize very soon. With a well below average strikeout ratio, Simon is stranding 87 percent of his runners. His BABIP against is just .206, which will not continue for a ground ball pitcher with a good, but not elite, defense behind him. The advanced metrics suggest exactly what we are, as Simon has a 1.60 ERA but a 3.75 FIP, a 4.27 xFIP, and a 4.32 SIERA.

Simon also hasn't really been tested very much. In his five starts, four of them have come against the Cubs, Pirates, and Mets. Those teams rank 26th, 23rd, and 29th in wOBA. The Brewers are a much more formidable group than those teams and this should be the start where Simon comes back to earth.

PLAY: MILWAUKEE



Pick Made: May 4 2014 4:50AM PST
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