Results: L, -$200Analysis:
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
and Alfredo Simon will take the mound for their respective teams as
the Brewers and Reds wrap up a four-game series at Great American
Ball Park. Lohse has been very impressive to start the season with
a 2.70 ERA and a 3.64 K/BB ratio. What's really interesting about
Lohse's season so far is that he's getting more swings and misses
inside the strike zone and is throwing more strikes. He's throwing
his breaking balls a bit more often and is using his outstanding
control to induce a lot of weak outs and strikeouts.
All but one
of Lohse's six starts have been quality starts, with three runs or
fewer and six or more innings pitched. Between the Brewers strong
defense and some run support, Lohse has gotten off to a great start
this season and we expect that to continue.
that we don't expect to continue is that of Alfredo Simon. Simon
has some unsustainable statistics in his profile that will
normalize very soon. With a well below average strikeout ratio,
Simon is stranding 87 percent of his runners. His BABIP against is
just .206, which will not continue for a ground ball pitcher with a
good, but not elite, defense behind him. The advanced metrics
suggest exactly what we are, as Simon has a 1.60 ERA but a 3.75
FIP, a 4.27 xFIP, and a 4.32 SIERA.
hasn't really been tested very much. In his five starts, four of
them have come against the Cubs, Pirates, and Mets. Those teams
rank 26th, 23rd, and 29th in wOBA. The Brewers are a much more
formidable group than those teams and this should be the start
where Simon comes back to earth.
Pick Made: May 4 2014 4:50AM PST