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Fri, 05/02/14 - 8:40 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
Free pick 912 COL / 911 NYM Under 9.5 Bookmaker.com
Results: L, 0
Analysis:
 912 NY Mets at Colorado

Zack Wheeler and Jorge de la Rosa will take the mound at Coors Field on Friday night when the Mets and Rockies continue their four-game series. These are two guys that shouldn't be affected by Coors Field's conditions. Wheeler has never pitched there before, but he induces an above average number of ground balls with the ability to miss bats. Wheeler is striking out over 24 percent of opposing hitters and the Rockies lineup has not been exposed to Wheeler.

Wheeler's advanced metrics point to some bad luck on batted balls and his strikeout rate increase is a legitimate step in the right direction for a pitcher with his talent. Wheeler has been missing barrels with low home run and line drive rates, so his location and command are developing well.

De la Rosa has also pitched better than his traditional stats would suggest and his 57.5 percent ground ball rate plays well at Coors Field. The Mets are a brutal offensive team, ranking 29th in wOBA and a 78 wRC+. The Mets have also struck out in over 26 percent of their plate appearances against lefties.

With a lot of ground balls and strikeouts likely in this matchup, we'll take advantage of the Coors Field inflated total and look for a low scoring game.

PLAY: NYM/COL UNDER

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Pick Made: May 2 2014 5:04AM PST
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