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Fri, 05/02/14 - 8:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 921 DET (+133) Pinnacle vs 922 KAN
Results: W, $266
Analysis:
921 Detroit at Kansas City

Two AL Central foes face off at Kauffman Stadium on Friday night when Rick Porcello and the Tigers take on James Shields and the Royals. Porcello seems to be taking the steps forward that everybody expected him to take. Last season he was much better than his traditional metrics indicated as a bad defensive team really hurt him. Porcello is showing up well in the advanced metrics again this season and he and his team aren't getting enough respect in this line.

Porcello has a 3.96 ERA but a 3.37 FIP, a 3.15 xFIP, and a 3.50 SIERA. Porcello isn't giving up free baserunners with a walk rate below five percent. A minor drop in velocity has lowered his strikeout rate, but hitters are chasing more often this season leading to a lot of weak contact, including a spike in pop ups. The drop in strikeouts is rather surprising because Porcello is getting the highest percentage of swings and misses of his career through the first five starts of his 2014 season. An increase in sliders has been very beneficial for Porcello and we expect him to perform well in this start.

James Shields is having a great season, but some of his statistics aren't going to hold up. Shields has a BABIP against of .240 this season, 57 points lower than his career average. The Royals have a good defense, but balls will start finding holes. Shields hasn't faced many quality lineups so far, with matchups against the Orioles minus Chris Davis and Manny Machado, the Indians, who are terrible offensively so far, and the Astros. Shields's FIP is well over a run higher than his ERA due to his batted ball luck. The Tigers are a much tougher assignment than most of what Shields has faced so far.

This number is simply too high with Shields going up against the Tigers offense and with Porcello's advanced metrics signaling that he has pitched better than the oddsmakers are giving him credit for.

PLAY: DETROIT


Pick Made: May 2 2014 4:46AM PST
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