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Wed, 04/30/14 - 9:40 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 909 COL (+104) Pinnacle vs 910 ARI
Results: L, -$200
Analysis: 909 Colorado at Arizona

The Colorado Rockies will go for a sweep on Wednesday night in Arizona when they send Jordan Lyles to the mound against Josh Collmenter. Lyles's advanced metrics were better than his traditional numbers during his Astros tenure because he was a ground ball guy working with a poor infield defense. His pitch-to-contact style didn't go over well in Houston, but the move to Colorado has been a major upgrade for Lyles. Armed with one of the game's top defenses, Lyles has posted a 2.93 ERA, a 3.54 FIP, and a 3.61 SIERA through his first five starts.

Since Lyles no longer feels obligated to try for strikeouts, he has relied a lot more on his two-seam fastball and has seen positive returns. Instead of trying to induce swings and misses with pitches outside of the zone, Lyles has thrown more strikes and has trusted in his defense. With Lyles able to change his philosophy and pitch in more of a comfort zone, his walk rate has gone down and his ground ball rate has spiked. Nearly 58 percent of balls in play against Lyles are on the ground and that limits extra base hits. With more efficiency, Lyles has been able to pitch into or through the seventh inning in three of his five starts.

At Chase Field, a park where the ball carries well, ground balls are a godsend for a pitcher and Lyles should not be affected negatively by the conditions.

On the other side, Josh Collmenter started the season in the bullpen and was thrust into the starting rotation after Randall Delgado and Trevor Cahill were gas cans for the Diamondbacks. Collmenter allowed seven runs on 10 hits over his first two starts, covering 10 innings, before a good outing his last time out. But, Collmenter is reliant on a cutter that sits in the 86-87 range and that has led to sharp platoon splits in his career. Lefties are slugging .403 against Collmenter in his career and Rockies' lefties are batting .308/.359/.540/.899 against right-handed pitching so far this season.

The switch to Colorado has made Lyles and underrated commodity and it's almost unfathomable to see the Diamondbacks favored against anybody right now, especially a team that's better than them with an advantage in the pitching matchup.

PLAY: COLORADO



Pick Made: Apr 30 2014 4:54AM PST
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