Results: L, 0Analysis:
955 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
The Cubs and Reds renew their NL Central rivalry on Monday night at
Great American Ball Park with a matchup of right-handers. It'll be
Jeff Samardzija for the Cubs going up against Alfredo Simon for the
If you look at pitchers that are seriously overachieving, Alfredo
Simon is clearly near the top of the list. Simon has a BABIP
against of .190, despite a strikeout rate of just 15.5 percent.
He's stranding nearly 91 percent of his runners and that will not
continue for a pitcher with a below average strikeout rate. Simon
has a 1.30 ERA but a 3.88 FIP and a 4.33 xFIP. His SIERA of 4.38
also signals regression on the horizon. The Cubs aren't a great
offense, but all it takes are ground balls finding holes against
Simon and the Cubs are an above average base running team.
Besides the statistics that show regression, Simon has an off-field
distraction to tend to. Reports came out on Sunday that a woman has
filed a civil suit against Simon regarding a past incident
involving alleged sexual assault. A guy like Simon with a mediocre
arsenal that is a converted reliever due to the Mat Latos injury
cannot afford to have a lack of focus. Between the advanced metrics
and the distractions, the Cubs stand a good chance of providing
Samardzija with some run support.
Jeff Samardzija has traded strikeouts for ground balls so far this
season, but he's still one of the most underappreciated arms in
baseball. The Reds have averaged three runs per game over their
last seven games. Samardzija has adopted more of a pitch-to-contact
approach to allow himself to work deeper into games as he has
traded some four-seam fastballs in for two-seamers. That change was
beneficial against the Reds in his last start and should be again
here against a struggling offense. While Samardzija is striking out
fewer batters, he's also walking fewer and is trending positively
in home runs allowed.
We'll trust in the advanced metrics and expect Simon's regression
to start here and look for another fine outing from
PLAY: CHICAGO CUBS
Chicago/Cincinnati game from yesterday was rained out. It's
scheduled to be played again today with the same pitching matchup.
We released that play yesterday at +135 and the game really moved
before being postponed. We project the line to open about where it
closed yesterday in the +120 range. That loss of 15 cents drops
that play from a 2* selection to a Free Play.
For the first time all
season we are releasing an MLB Triple Play. 3 Best Bets for only
$25. That's the normal price for just a single selection. Grab
this money saving package on Tuesday as we look to sweep the entire
Pick Made: Apr 29 2014 5:06AM PST