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Tue, 04/29/14 - 8:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Total
double-dime bet 978 HOU / 977 WAS Under 8 Westgate
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
978 Washington at Houston

An interesting pitching matchup in Houston on Tuesday night with Gio Gonzalez against Jarred Cosart. Runs could be at a premium with these two hurlers on the mound because of Gonzalez's great swing-and-miss ability against an Astros lineup that swings and misses a lot and Cosart being an unfamiliar pitcher for the Nationals lineup.

Gio Gonzalez is one of the most consistent pitchers in the league and has continued that into the 2014 season. His strikeout rate is right in line with his career average and that's a big asset against an Astros lineup that has the sixth-worst K/BB ratio against lefties and fifth-highest K% overall. Gonzalez is the same pitcher he's always been with the same types of strike rates, velocity, and a small increase in fly balls. He'll be solid again here.

Jarred Cosart has had a difficult start to the season but there's reason to expect improvement. Cosart is throwing first-pitch strikes to almost 64 percent of hitters. He's inducing ground balls on over 56 percent of plate appearances. His 4.44 xFIP is well below his 6.12 ERA, a sign that his home run per fly ball rate should regress soon.

The Nationals lineup looks a lot different now without both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper. Cosart will start to find his stride and four of his first five starts came against AL West competition that had a pretty good idea of what to expect from him. The Nationals haven't seen him and that should benefit Cosart the first couple of times through the lineup.

PLAY: WAS/HOU UNDER


Pick Made: Apr 29 2014 4:58AM PST
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