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Tue, 04/29/14 - 10:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 973 CLE (+130) Bookmaker.com vs 974 ANA
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
973 Cleveland at LA Angels

A couple of righties trending in opposite directions will face off on Tuesday night at Angel Stadium when Corey Kluber and the Indians take on Jered Weaver and the Angels. There are 69 pitchers with 30 innings or more pitched so far this season. Corey Kluber ranks 13th in FIP, ahead of guys like Ryu, Cashner, Tanaka, Verlander, Wacha, Scherzer, and the list goes on. In 32.1 innings, Kluber has a 30/6 K/BB ratio. His ERA of 3.90 is definitely misleading as his BABIP against is very high at .353. His 2.59 FIP and 3.23 SIERA are better indicators of how Kluber has pitched so far this season.

Looking at the Indians offense, there may not be a more unlucky group in all of baseball so far. The Indians have the eighth-lowest K%, fourth-highest BB%, yet they rank 20th in runs scored. The Indians are 23rd in batting average but 13th in on-base percentage. Balls in play just have not found holes. That's going to change. And there's a very good chance it will start to change against Jered Weaver.

Weaver is clearly declining. He has a 4.11 ERA due to a very low .221 BABIP. Weaver's FIP is 4.94 with a xFIP of 4.86. His strikeout rate has dropped while he is walking one additional batter per nine innings than he did last season. Weaver is throwing first-pitch strikes to just 48.8 percent of hitters. The patient Indians lineup has plenty of talent and will start to get it going soon, especially against pitchers that they can be patient against. Weaver fits that bill, especially if he's going to fall behind so many hitters.

There's too much value to pass on the Indians here. With Kluber, who remains underappreciated by the oddsmakers, going up against Weaver who is overvalued on name recognition, the Indians are a good bet for Tuesday night.

PLAY: CLEVELAND


Pick Made: Apr 29 2014 4:55AM PST
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